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guolian: The fundamentals of the liquor sector in 2024Q3 have bottomed out, and the report is slowing down.
Overall, the revenue growth rate of key baijiu industry companies in 2024Q3 calculated by the method of law is 2.41%, with high-end liquor/second-tier liquor/regional liquor revenue growth rates of +9.59%/-0.38%/-15.64% respectively, each decreasing by 4.65/8.87/23.32 percentage points compared to the previous period.
Hong Kong stocks are active | Beer stocks rose in the late trading, with the hope of improving demand supporting the volume and price of beer. The leading beer company continues its steady growth.
Beer stocks rose in the final hour, as of the deadline, bud apac (01876) rose by 5.24%, closing at 8.44 Hong Kong dollars; china res beer (00291) rose by 4.61%, closing at 30.65 Hong Kong dollars; and tsingtao brew (00168) rose by 2.14%, closing at 52.5 Hong Kong dollars.
Debang Securities: Differentiation in the food and beverage sector's financial reports in the third quarter, Maotai (600519.SH) prices hit bottom and rebounded.
In the third quarter, the performance of liquor enterprises generally slowed down, with channels releasing pressure to build up momentum for next year. The long-term logic of various sub-sectors of mass market remains unchanged, and it is recommended to focus on symbols with performance exceeding expectations.
Nomura: Maintains 'shareholding' rating for china res beer, target price raised to 34 Hong Kong dollars.
CMB released a research report stating that it has lowered China Res Beer (00291) earnings forecast for 2024 to 2026 by 2% to 5%. The bank has raised the baijiu target price from 32 Hong Kong dollars to 34 Hong Kong dollars, with a 'shareholding' rating. The bank lowered the group's sales forecast for this year by 3% to reflect weak beer demand and reduced baijiu sales forecasts, while sales in 2025 and 2026 are expected to drop by 6% on a lower base. Due to weak sales in the mid-to-high-end business, the bank assumed a decrease of 0.5, 1.1, and 1.3 percentage points in the gross margin for each of the years 2024 to 2026, but still expects profit expansion. This is likely to be anticipated in the operating results.
Currently entering the off-season for beer consumption, beer stocks are under pressure. Tsingtao Brew (00168) fell by 5.39%.
King Wealth News | Currently entering the off-season for beer consumption, beer stocks are under pressure, Tsingtao Brewery (00168) down by 5.39%, China Resources Beer (00291) down by 2.27%, Bud APAC (01876) down by 1.29%. Donghai Securities stated that based on the third-quarter reports of some beer companies, Q3 revenue is under pressure, and profit elasticity is showing. Mainly due to the continued weakness in Q3 dining consumption, with reduced frequency of current dining consumption. The bank pointed out that during the off-season of beer consumption, it is important to pay attention to the inventory structure of each beer company.
Goldman Sachs: Maintains a "buy" rating on China Resources Beer (00291) with a target price of 38.1 Hong Kong dollars.
China Res Beer management expects future capital spending to decrease and is committed to gradually increasing the dividend payout ratio to 60%-70% in the coming years.
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