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Morgan Stanley: Lowered the Target Price for CHINA OVERSEAS to HKD 12.8, rating downgraded to 'Market Perform'.
Morgan Stanley released a research report stating that it has downgraded the rating of CHINA OVERSEAS (00688) from "Shareholding" to "in line with the market," with the Target Price lowered by 7%, from HKD 13.8 to HKD 12.8. It believes the valuation corresponds to a forward PE of 8 times (higher than peers) which is reasonable (peers in Listed in Hong Kong are 6 to 8 times). The report states that CHINA OVERSEAS has the best land reserves and balance sheet among major developers in mainland China, but factors such as significant reductions in land reserves may continue to weigh on its mid-term earnings and dividends. Morgan Stanley indicates a reduction in the gross margin forecasts for CHINA OVERSEAS from 2024 to 2026 by approximately 1.
The LPR remained unchanged in January. Will mortgage rates decrease again in 2025?
① Since January, the policy interest rates, which are the basis for LPR Quotes, have stabilized, suggesting that the January LPR Quote will remain unchanged. ② There is a possibility of interest rate cuts in the first half of 2025, with the total reduction expected to reach 50 basis points for the year, which is higher than the 30 basis points reduction from the previous year, leading to a significant downward adjustment of the LPR Quote.
Keenan Securities: Real Estate sales in the fourth quarter are stabilizing marginally, and the annual scale of starts and completions has significantly contracted.
The expected sales data for January is weak, and the sustainability of market recovery still needs to be observed.
Analysts Offer Insights on Real Estate Companies: China Overseas Land & Investment (OtherCAOVF) and Wharf (Holdings) (OtherWARFF)
CICC: New home sales showed stable performance in December 2024. Follow-up measures after the policy effect pulsing back are still the focus of attention.
Considering the recent narrowing year-on-year growth in sales area of new and second-hand homes, and the trend of declining listing prices and increasing volumes in major cities, the effects of policies may be gradually pulsing back. The decline in market trading activities around the Spring Festival could lead to a more stable phase of price fluctuations.
Mainland Real Estate has partially warmed up as LONGFOR GROUP (00960) rises by 3.73%. Institutions indicate that the continuous improvement of the land market is a prerequisite for the market recovery.
Jinwu Financial News | Some Mainland Real Estate stocks have shown signs of recovery. LONGFOR GROUP (00960) increased by 3.73%, YUEXIU PROPERTY (00123) rose by 3.35%, CHINA RES LAND (01109) went up by 3.1%, CHINA OVERSEAS (00688) advanced by 3.01%, and CH OVS G OCEANS (00081) climbed by 2.38%. The National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in December 2024, in 70 large and medium-sized cities, the sales prices of Commodity Residence in first-tier cities increased month-on-month, while the overall decline in second and third-tier cities narrowed; the year-on-year decline in first, second, and third-tier cities continued to narrow. In December, the new commercial properties in first-tier cities...