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Guolian Securities: Cement "off-season not light" in 24Q3, price center may continue to rise
In the third quarter of 2024, in most regions, the staggered increase in cement intensity continues to increase, with the industry's supply and demand situation gradually improving. Cement prices continue to rise slightly, showing a certain "off-season not light" characteristic. Both industry profits on a month-on-month and year-on-year basis have improved.
[Brokerage Focus] Citic Securities believes that the demand for the cement industry is expected to be in a downward phase in the medium to long term.
Jingu Financial News | Citic Securities stated that the cement industry's demand is expected to be in a downward phase in the medium to long term, with future industry changes focusing more on the supply side. In 2016, the supply-side reform of the cement industry led to a significant reduction in new cement clinker production capacity, but the speed of eliminating outdated capacity was slower than expected, and the industry still faces widespread overcapacity issues. Since 2024, cement demand has dropped significantly, leading to severe losses in the industry. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has revised and issued the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Cement and Glass Industries in 2024", which is expected to accelerate the elimination of more than 0.3 billion tons of outdated cement clinker production capacity, reducing actual capacity from 2.1 billion tons to the designed capacity of 1.
Hong Kong stock concept tracking|Real estate market transaction active, institutions highly concerned about cement supply side reform (with concept stocks)
The building materials sector as a whole is still in the slow recovery phase at the bottom, with valuations and positions also at low levels.
Building materials cement stocks across the board fell, with Shanshui Cement (00691) dropping by 5.88%. Institutions believe that cement prices lack the momentum for a rebound.
Jingu Financial News | Building materials and cement stocks across the board are declining. As of the time of publication, Shanshui Cement (00691) fell by 5.88%, Dongwu Cement (00695) fell by 5.29%, CNBM (03323) fell by 3.56%, CR Bldg Mat Tec (01313) fell by 3.55%, Huaxin Cement (06655) fell by 3.16%, Conch Cement (00914) fell by 2.48%. In addition, Tungkong International stated that since 2024, due to the real estate market still being in a deep adjustment phase, coupled with the continued slowing down of infrastructure investment growth, the cement industry's overall demand is weak, leading to a decline in domestic cement prices.
Trending Industry Today: BBMG Leads Gains In Building Materials Stocks
haitong sec: Pressure has already emerged in the construction industry, looking forward to policy changes.
haitong sec released research reports stating that industry pressure has already emerged, awaiting policy changes.
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