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China Galaxy Securities: The first peak of the Spring Festival travel season is shifted forward, and the structured Consumption Upgrade continues.
This year's Spring Festival travel data shows three main characteristics: the total volume has reached a historical high, the peak of the first round of travel has shifted forward compared to previous years, and the trend of structural improvement seen in recent years has continued.
【Special Contributor】Deng Shengxing: The Hong Kong stock market is showing a subdued trend, and there may not be strong upward momentum in the future.
Jinwu Finance | The Hang Seng Index closed at 20597 on Wednesday (5th), down 192 points or 0.9%. The total market turnover was 192.2 billion yuan. The National Index fell by 1%, closing at 7566; the Technology Index finished at 4930, down 1%. HSBC Global stated that the CSI China Mainland Consumer Index is expected to further weaken in the second half of 2024, coupled with the Caixin Services PMI being the lowest since October last year, domestic demand stocks faced selling pressure. CHINA RES BEER (00291) dropped by 2.9%; starting today, the USA Postal Service has suspended the acceptance of parcels from mainland China and Hong Kong, leading to a decline in the Aviation/airlines Industry. Air China (00753) fell by 4.4%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 44873 points on Wednesday (5th).
[Brokerage Focus] CITIC SEC pointed out that 2025 may be the first year on the right side of the aviation prosperity cycle. Currently, airline valuations are attractive.
Golden News | CITIC SEC stated that in the 20 days leading up to the Spring Festival travel rush in 2025, the number of cross-regional travelers in society increased by 7.6% year-on-year, exceeding pre-holiday predictions. The staggered holiday and the effect of combining time off led to a relatively concentrated flow of travelers before the holiday, with a notable performance in secondary travel. In the 20 days leading up to the travel rush, the number of passengers sent via civil aviation/railroads/highways/private cars increased by 7.1%/6.6%/14.3%/5.9% year-on-year. It is expected that civil aviation's volume and price performance alleviated market concerns over last year's high base, and the year-on-year effects during the subsequent peak season are expected to improve significantly. In the 20 days leading up to the travel rush, the cumulative number of passengers sent by civil aviation increased by 7.1% year-on-year, constrained by added domestic flights.
The aviation/airlines industry experienced a general decline, with Air China Limited (00753) falling by 5.24%. Institutions indicate that the rise in oil prices in the short term may put pressure on airlines' profits in the first quarter.
Jinwu Financial News | The Aviation/airlines Industry has seen a widespread decline. As of the time of writing, Air China Limited (00753) has fallen by 5.24%, China Southern Airlines (01055) has dropped by 3.86%, China Eastern Airlines (00670) is down by 2.44%, and CATHAY PAC AIR (00293) has decreased by 2.3%. In terms of news, GTJA pointed out that passenger flow increased by 4% year-on-year during the first four days of the holiday, but the high base led to a slight decrease in the number of flights year-on-year, affecting the growth rate of passenger flow. Regarding ticket prices, it is estimated that the net ticket price during the holiday has decreased year-on-year, with the operational fleet turnover and passenger load factor remaining flat year-on-year. HSBC Analysts noted that despite the weak trend in ticket prices, Chinese airlines are expected to see a strong performance during the Lunar New Year period.
Hong Kong stocks movement | The aviation/airlines industry fell across the board in the morning due to a high base affecting the year-on-year flight volume, slightly reducing passenger flow growth, and the ticket prices during the festival dropped year-on
In the morning session, the aviation/airlines industry experienced a general decline. As of the time of this report, Air China Limited (00753) fell by 4.82%, trading at HKD 4.54; China Southern Airlines (01055) dropped by 3.58%, trading at HKD 3.50; CATHAY PAC AIR (00293) decreased by 2.11%, trading at HKD 10.22; and China Eastern Airlines (00670) fell by 1.22%, trading at HKD 2.43.
Hong Kong stock Concept tracking | The Spring Festival travel of 2025 is more than halfway over, with the number of travelers reaching a historical high. The civil aviation market may welcome positive catalysts (including related stocks).
In the future, as international routes continue to recover and domestic demand gradually warms up, the supply and demand relationship in the civil aviation market is expected to continue to improve.
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