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Follow up on Guangzhou! First-tier cities all cancel the standard of ordinary and non-ordinary residential properties, what is the market impact?
① With Guangzhou's official announcement today, all four first-tier cities have now canceled the standards for ordinary residences and non-ordinary residences. ② "For first-tier cities, after canceling the standards for ordinary residences and non-ordinary residences, it can significantly reduce the value-added tax costs in the second-hand housing trade process, lower transaction costs, and promote improving demand."
Mainland real estate stocks all fell, radiance hldgs (09993) dropped by 11.05%. Fitch Bohua expects significant pressure on short-term housing price adjustments.
Golden Guard Financial News | Mainland real estate stocks fell across the board, with Radiance Holdings (09993) down 11.05%, Sunac (01918) down 8.43%, R&F Properties (02777) down 7.85%, Shimao Group (00813) down 5.08%, Sino-Ocean Group (03377) down 4.62%, and cifi hold gp (00884) down 4.55%. In terms of news, Fitch Bohua stated in the report that the outlook for the China real estate development industry in 2025 is "slow but stable", expecting the short-term downward trend in second-hand house prices to continue, with still significant pressure on new house price adjustments, believing that
Hong Kong stocks unusual movement | Mainland real estate stocks collectively decline, sunac (01918) falls more than 8%, ronshinechina (03301) falls more than 7%.
Mainland real estate stocks collectively declined. As of the time of writing, sunac (01918) is down 8.05%, priced at 2.4 Hong Kong dollars; ronshinechina (03301) is down 7.53%, priced at 0.43 Hong Kong dollars; zhongliang hldg (02772) is down 6.2%, priced at 0.121 Hong Kong dollars.
The unchanged LPR in November meets market expectations. Industry insiders do not rule out the possibility of further interest rate cuts next year along with the reverse repurchase rate.
① By the end of the year, the economic running is expected to continue its upward trend, with policy interest rates likely to remain stable and LPR quote also expected to stay unchanged. ② There is a high possibility of further reductions in deposit rates in the future, coupled with the issuance of special treasury bonds to support large state-owned commercial banks in replenishing their core tier one capital, which is expected to gradually alleviate the interest spread and operational pressure for commercial banks. It is possible that next year the LPR quote may be accompanied by further interest rate cuts on reverse repurchase agreements.
According to the Finger Research Institute, in October, the average price of second-hand residences in 100 cities dropped by 7.27% compared to the same period last year.
According to data monitoring by the China Index Academy, in October 2024, the average price of second-hand residences in 100 cities was 14,360 yuan per square meter, a month-on-month decrease of 0.60%, narrowing the decline by 0.10 percentage points compared to September; a year-on-year decrease of 7.27%.
Hong Kong stocks anomaly | Mainland real estate stocks surged and then fell back, ronshinechina (03301) dropped more than 5%, zhongliang hldg (02772) dropped more than 3%.
Mainland real estate surged and then fell back. As of the time of publication, ronshinechina (03301) fell by 5.05% to 0.47 Hong Kong dollars; Zhongliang Hldg (02772) fell by 3.68% to 0.131 Hong Kong dollars; Shimao Group (00813) fell by 2.5% to 1.17 Hong Kong dollars.
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