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[Brokerage Focus] Fitch states that the domestic real estate Industry is still troubled by structural problems and expects that prices of newly built Commodities will remain under pressure until 2025.
Jinwu Financial News | Timothy G. Wong, Senior Director at Fitch Ratings and Head of Real Estate Ratings in China, stated that the agency expects the operating environment for Chinese real estate companies to remain under pressure this year. Fitch predicts that due to a decline in both total transaction area and average selling price (down by 10% and 5% respectively), the total sales volume of newly built Commodity Residences in China will decrease by 15% in 2025, reaching approximately 7.3 trillion yuan. A series of policy measures introduced by the government have somewhat boosted the recent sentiment in the Real Estate market, but whether the sector can maintain long-term improvement remains uncertain, given the high inventory levels, weak employment environment, and relatively low housing affordability for buyers.
Mainland Real Estate stocks generally declined, COUNTRY GARDEN (02007) fell by 13.16%. Institutions expect that the Volume of Residence transactions will see a certain drop compared to the previous month in January of this year.
Jinwu Financial News | Mainland Real Estate stocks are broadly declining. As of the time of this report, COUNTRY GARDEN (02007) is down 13.16%, SHIMAO GROUP (00813) is down 7.37%, AGILE GROUP (03383) is down 4.48%, LONGFOR GROUP (00960) is down 4.16%, and CHINA VANKE (02202) is down 2.96%. In terms of news, the China Index Academy released the "Top 10 Cities Second-hand Housing Price Map for December 2024" on the 16th. According to the China Real Estate Index System's 100-city price index, the average price of second-hand Residences in 100 cities is expected to drop by 0.53% month-on-month in December 2024, with the decline slightly narrowing compared to the previous month.
The three major Hong Kong stock indices are steadily rising, with Real Estate stocks leading the performance due to bullish factors.
① What factors contributed to today's performance of the Hong Kong stock market? ② Why are Consumer Electronics-related stocks continuously favored by the market?
SHIMAO GROUP [00813] is currently reported at 1.02 Hong Kong dollars, with an increase of 10.87%.
As of 10:04, SHIMAO GROUP [00813] reported HKD 1.02, up HKD 0.10 or 10.87% from yesterday's closing price of HKD 0.92, with a transaction volume of 5.9733 million HKD. Today's highest price is HKD 1.02 and the lowest price is HKD 0.93. Based on yesterday's closing price, the 10-day average price is HKD 0.90, the 50-day average price is HKD 1.12, the current PE is -0.15 times, and the 14-day strength index is reported at 35.56.
According to the index research, the cumulative decline in the prices of second-hand houses nationwide in the fourth quarter of 2024 is narrowing, and the prices in first-tier cities have shown significant stabilization.
According to data monitoring by the Middle Finger Research Institute, in the fourth quarter of 2024, the cumulative decline in second-hand housing prices across all tiers of cities has narrowed, with a significant stabilization in prices in first-tier cities.
The LPR remained unchanged in January. Will mortgage rates decrease again in 2025?
① Since January, the policy interest rates, which are the basis for LPR Quotes, have stabilized, suggesting that the January LPR Quote will remain unchanged. ② There is a possibility of interest rate cuts in the first half of 2025, with the total reduction expected to reach 50 basis points for the year, which is higher than the 30 basis points reduction from the previous year, leading to a significant downward adjustment of the LPR Quote.
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