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[Brokerage Focus] CCB International indicates that there are no signs of a bottoming out in the fundamentals of the Real Estate Industry.
Kingwo Financial News | CMB International released the Real Estate Outlook for 2025, expecting the annual sales growth rates for new homes in 2024 and 2025 to be -20% and -11%, reaching 7.4 and 7 trillion respectively, while the transaction volume for second-hand homes is projected to reach 7.1 and 7.5 trillion, officially becoming the dominant force in the real estate market. This is mainly based on 1) Policy: The effects of the already implemented policies are still lingering, and several measures are currently being put into action, which require time for observation. Hence, it is speculated that the likelihood of introducing major policies in the short term (such as lifting purchase restrictions in more first-tier cities) is relatively low. At the same time, the promotion of policies like stockpiling still faces challenges, making it difficult to significantly reduce inventory in 2025; 2) Supply.
Major bank ratings | JPMorgan: The preferred Mainland Real Estate stocks are CHINA RES LAND, CHINA RES MIXC, and POLY PPT SER, all rated "Shareholding."
JPMorgan released a Research Report indicating that the Central Political Bureau meeting once again emphasized the need to stabilize the development of the property market. The more proactive macroeconomic policy tone is encouraging, including a clear implementation of a more active fiscal policy and moderately relaxed MMF policy, which is expected to support the development of the Real Estate market. The bank's top picks in the property sector are CHINA RES LAND, CHINA RES MIXC, and POLY PPT SER, all rated as Shareholding with respective Target Prices of 30 Hong Kong dollars, 31 Hong Kong dollars, and 35 Hong Kong dollars. The bank emphasized that it will pay attention to the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference, which is expected to present more similar policy narratives and a shift in policy tone regarding the Real Estate industry.
China Resources Land Redeems $1.05 Billion Securities
[Brokerage Focus] Dahua Jixiang maintains a "shareholding" rating on mainland real estate, expecting more policy support to be introduced.
Jinwu Financial News | Daihua Jixian's research reports indicate that the Political Bureau meeting in China clearly expressed on the 9th that a moderately loose mmf policy will be implemented in 2025, marking the first relaxation of policy stance since 2012. The report states that this stance may signify the introduction of more supportive policies in the future, which will have a positive impact on the real estate market. The report continues to state that although it will take time for buyer confidence to recover, lower expected LPR, setting performance indicators for local governments, and the central government's support for inventory reduction through bonds are all crucial for stabilizing market conditions. The atmosphere in the land market has already improved in November, with many private developers.
Hong Kong stocks move | Mainland real estate stocks opened higher across the board. The Political Bureau meeting emphasized to "stabilize the real estate market," and policies for both supply and demand in real estate are expected to increase.
Mainland real estate shares opened higher across the board. As of the time of writing, sunac (01918) rose 13.84% to HKD 3.29; ronshinechina (03301) rose 13.73% to HKD 0.58; radiance hldgs (09993) rose 12.65% to HKD 3.74.
china res land (01109) has completed the redemption of 1.05 billion US dollars of subordinated perpetual capital securities.
china res land (01109) announced that for the issued 1.05 billion US dollars subordinated perpetual capital securities, it will be in 2024...
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