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Huachuang Securities: The logic of improvement gradually unfolds, maintaining a neutral outlook on the possibility of a reversal in milk prices in Q3 2025.
First, after the Spring Festival, the destocking during the off-season is expected to accelerate, and then the raw milk cycle is expected to reverse in Q3 of 2025.
Peak season's lackluster performance leads to another drop in raw milk prices. Is overseas bulk powdered milk still cost-effective? | Industry News
Since November, the price of raw milk has reached a new low in this cycle, and the import volume of bulk powder has been declining for eight consecutive months compared to the previous year; currently, domestic bulk powder has started to be exported at low stock prices to some major producing countries; experts believe that this trend of declining import of dairy products will continue.
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The continuous inversion of raw milk prices has not resolved the "ranch crisis". Should we continue to slaughter cows?
①In the past year, the industry has been continuously 'slaughtering cows' to reduce overcapacity, but the situation of oversupply has not been reversed; ②The impact of oversupply of raw milk has fully appeared in the financial reports of large-scale farms and dairy enterprises; ③The current growth rate of raw milk production is further slowing down, and prices are expected to stabilize in the second quarter of 2025.
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