WYNN MACAU Stock Forum

Wynn Macau's falling revenue and lack of profitability have led to a significant drop in share price, making the stock risky to buy. Contrarian investors might see potential for a turnaround despite the company's long-term share price weakness.

Wynn Macau's falling ROCE and 67% depreciation raise doubts about its future performance. Despite reduced liabilities potentially lowering operational risk, it may hinder the efficiency of generating ROCE as operations become more self-funded.

Insiders may deem the shares not cheap due to recent significant sales with a lack of purchases. The level of insider ownership could instil more confidence. Careful consideration is advised when investing into Wynn Macau.

Analysts opine the company appears robust entering Q4 with 98% hotel occupancy in October and a steady market share over 13%. Yet, questions linger regarding its shift to attract more non-VIP customers and boost non-gaming revenues. The gross gaming revenue stands at about 65% of pre-pandemic levels, below the industry average of 69%.

Core points:
Our new pecking order: MGM (2282.HK) = Wynn (1128.HK) > Sands (1928.HK) > Melco (MLCO.US, 200.HK) =Galaxy(27.HK)>SJM (880.HK).
We largely maintain our 2Q23 mass gross gaming revenue (GGR) projection of 89% of the 2Q19 level, given:
1) Continued staff hiring, alleviating of bottleneck of hotel rooms;
During the pandemic, all six gaming operators in Macao reduced their employee headcounts, resulting in a labor shortage in t...