【Brokerage Focus】CITIC SEC indicated that Macau's GGR in February is expected to show a "long tail effect."
Jinwu Financial News | CITIC SEC stated that in the first seven days before the Spring Festival holiday in 2025 (from the first to the seventh day of the first lunar month), the total inbound passenger flow to Macau has recovered to 98% of the same period in 2019, consistent with the expectations for Q4 2024. However, due to the high proportion of family travel in the Macau tourism market during the Spring Festival holiday, the gambling market has been experiencing "crowded but not profitable" conditions, leading to a noticeable adjustment in the sector due to slightly weaker gambling data. The firm observed a significant warming in demand after the Spring Festival holiday, with February GGR expected to show a "long tail effect", predicting that the combined GGR for January and February will remain flat compared to the same period in 2024. The firm believes that the recent sector adjustment has fully reflected this.
Hong Kong stocks move | Macau Casino stocks rose in the morning, Sands China (01928) pays dividends for the first time in five years, and JPMorgan predicts that Macau's annual gaming revenue will grow by 2% year-on-year.
Macau Casino stocks rose in the morning session. As of the time of writing, Sands China (01928) is up 6.29%, quoted at 18.26 HKD; GALAXY ENT (00027) is up 5.42%, quoted at 31.1 HKD; WYNN MACAU (01128) is up 3.77%, quoted at 5.51 HKD; MGM CHINA (02282) is up 4.11%, quoted at 10.64 HKD.
Macau Casino stocks are strong, Sands China (01928) rose 5.94%. In January, the number of inbound tourists to Macau increased by 27.4% year-on-year.
King Wu Financial News | Macau Casino stocks are strong, Sands China (01928) rose 5.94%, GALAXY ENT (00027) rose 4.92%, WYNN MACAU (01128) rose 3.77%, MGM CHINA (02282) rose 3.72%, SJM HOLDINGS (00880) rose 2.93%, MELCO INT'L DEV (00200) rose 2.47%. According to news, the Statistics and Census Service of Macau showed that in January this year, the total number of inbound visitors was 3.647 million, an increase of 27.4% compared to the previous year. However, overnight visitors (2.155 million) and staying visitors (1.491 million) decreased.
J.P. Morgan: Forecasts that Macau's gambling revenue in February will be between 18.3 billion to 19.4 billion Macanese Patacas. Recommends GALAXY ENT and others.
JPMorgan released a Research Report forecasting that Macau's gambling revenue in February will range between 18.3 billion and 19.4 billion Macau patacas, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1% to an increase of 5%. The bank believes that this year's total gambling revenue may only record low single-digit growth, currently predicting a year-on-year increase of 2%. It continues to list GALAXY ENT (00027) as the industry’s top choice.
Macquarie: It is expected that the total gambling revenue in February will be between 18.5 billion to 19.3 billion patacas. The preferred choice in the industry is GALAXY ENT.
Macquarie has released a Research Report stating a "Outperform Market" rating for GALAXY ENT (00027) and SANDS CHINA LTD (01928), with Target Prices set at HKD 48.8 and HKD 25.8 respectively. Currently, Macquarie's industry preference is for GALAXY ENT, and the attractiveness of SANDS is gradually improving as the impact of renovations diminishes. The firm analyzed the Macau Gambling market using third-party data and expects total gambling revenue in February to be between 18.5 billion and 19.3 billion patacas, implying a year-on-year decline of 1%-3% in gambling revenue for the first two months. The Macquarie Research Report indicates that third-party data shows the average daily gambling revenue in Macau last week was 7.
Macquarie estimates that total Gambling revenue in February will be between 18.5 billion and 19.3 billion Macau patacas, with GALAXY ENT (00027) being the industry preferred choice.
Give GALAXY ENT (00027) and SANDS CHINA LTD (01928) a "Outperform the Market" rating, with Target Prices of HKD 48.8 and HKD 25.8 respectively.
【Brokerage Focus】Soochow Securities (Hong Kong) maintains a "Buy" rating on WYNN MACAU (01128), indicating that the company's Q4 2024 performance exceeded expectations.
Jingwu Financial News | Soochow Securities (Hong Kong) released a Research Report indicating that WYNN MACAU (01128) achieved gaming revenue of 0.93 billion USD in Q4 2024, recovering 74.7% compared to the same period in 2019. Among them, VIP and mass market (including slot machines) achieved gaming revenue of 0.16 billion and 0.76 billion USD respectively, with quarter-on-quarter growth of 15.3% and 3.9%. The recovery levels returned to 29.7% and 110.1% of Q4 2019, with recovery degree increasing by 4.4 percentage points and 3.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. During the same period, under the Gaming Inspection Bureau's criteria, the industry VIP and mass market (including slot machines) recovered to 43.3% and 109.0% respectively, with recovery degree increasing by 1.
Major brokerage rating | Macquarie: Slightly raises the Target Price for WYNN MACAU to HKD 8.7, with last season's performance exceeding expectations.
Macquarie published a Research Report indicating that due to a win rate higher than the average level, WYNN MACAU's revenue for the fourth quarter of the 2024 fiscal year increased by 1.3% year-on-year, while adjusted EBITDA decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, both exceeding the bank's expectations by 5% and 11% respectively. Macquarie noted that both hotels under WYNN MACAU have launched smart gaming tables, and management believes this will help improve operational efficiency. Notably, for the fourth quarter of the 2024 fiscal year, the daily operating expense running rate increased by 1.2% year-on-year, and the bank expects WYNN MACAU's management to continue to strictly control operating costs to maximize profit margins. Additionally, Macquarie will adjust WYNN MACAU's revenue for the 2025 fiscal year.
Wynn Macau's Q4 Pre-Tax Earnings Fall
[Hong Kong Stock Connect] WYNN MACAU (01128) reported fourth-quarter Operating income of 0.3637 billion USD, a year-on-year decline of 5.83%.
Jinwu Financial News | WYNN MACAU (01128) announced that for the fourth quarter of 2024, WYNN MACAU's operating income is 0.3637 billion USD, a decrease of 22.5 million USD compared to 0.3862 billion USD in the fourth quarter of 2023, representing a year-on-year decline of 5.83%. The adjusted property EBIDTAR for the fourth quarter of 2024 is 0.1082 billion USD, while it was 0.1258 billion USD in the fourth quarter of 2023. The winning percentage of table games in the mid-market segment is 17.9%, which is lower than the 19.1% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2023. The winning percentage for VIP table games as a percentage of the turnover is 5.01.
WYNN MACAU (01128): The controlling Shareholder Wynn Resorts, Limited continues to show strong overall Business performance in the fourth quarter and throughout the year 2024.
WYNN MACAU (01128) announced that its controlling Shareholder, Wynn Resorts, Limited...
Wynn Macau Reports Unaudited 2024 Financial Results From Parent Company
MGM CHINA (02282) rose 4.43%, leading the Macau Casino sector. Morgan Stanley indicates that Macau Casino stocks have been over-corrected.
King Wu Financial News | MGM CHINA (02282) reported a 27.15% year-on-year increase in total revenue, driving the stock price up by 4.43%, leading the Macau Casino sector. Additionally, MELCO INT'L DEV (00200) rose by 3.38%, Sands China (01928) increased by 3.65%, SJM HOLDINGS (00880) went up by 3.43%, GALAXY ENT (00027) added 2.44%, and WYNN MACAU (01128) climbed by 1.95%. JPMorgan stated that it believes the Macau Casino stocks have been excessively corrected (down 12% year-to-date while the Hang Seng Index has risen by 6%), but before the market expectations are fully reset, establish.
Wynn Macau Downgraded to Neutral From Buy at Citi
CITIC Securities: Upgraded PARADISE ENT's rating to a highly confident "outperform the market" with a Target Price of 1.6 HKD.
CITIC Securities released a research report stating that based on current prices, it maintains PARADISE ENT (01180) Target Price at HKD 1.6 and upgrades the rating to a high conviction of "outperforming the market." Additionally, it maintains investment forecasts, with the company still expected to achieve a dividend yield of 13.6-14% per year. According to the firm's estimates, PARADISE ENT's 2024 table game yield ranks only after WYNN MACAU (01128) and MGM CHINA (02282), benefiting from the casino-friendly economy of live mixed gaming machine (LMG) terminals. The firm indicated that the group's resilience may continue, and it is a relative beneficiary of Macau's current gambling laws.
Lyon: Macau's total Gambling revenue in January was lower than expected. The industry's preferred choices are Sands China and GALAXY ENT.
Lyon released a research report stating that Macau's total Gambling revenue in January this year reached 18.3 billion patacas, which is 6% lower than expected and shows unsatisfactory performance. Additionally, during the period from January 29 to 31, Macau averaged only 0.1506 million visitors per day, indicating low visitor numbers. Although Lyon's forecast for Macau's total Gambling revenue this year is still 2% lower than the general market expectations, the bank believes that as Consumer confidence increases, growth will only accelerate, with this situation expected to occur by 2026. The bank has lowered its profit forecast for GALAXY ENT (00027) and simultaneously reduced its Target Price for H shares from HKD 46.5.
Lyon: Macau's total gambling revenue in January was below expectations. The industry prefers Sands China (01928) and GALAXY ENT (00027).
Lyon expects that the EBITDA for Silver Entertainment, WYNN MACAU (01128), Melco Resorts and Entertainment (MLCO.US), MGM CHINA (02282), and SJM HOLDINGS (00880) will increase by 3% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Hong Kong stocks fluctuate | Macau Casino continue to decline, MGM CHINA (02282) falls nearly 4%, and January gaming revenue in Macau falls short of expectations.
Macau Casino stocks continue to decline. As of the time of writing, MGM CHINA (02282) is down 3.76%, priced at 10.24 HKD; WYNN MACAU (01128) is down 3.44%, priced at 5.33 HKD; SJM HOLDINGS (00880) is down 2.1%, priced at 2.33 HKD.
Macau Casino stocks weakened at the start; GALAXY ENT (00027) dropped by 4.96%. In January, Macau's gaming revenue fell by 5.6% year-on-year.
King Wu Financial News | Macau Casino stocks weakened in early trading. As of the time of writing, GALAXY ENT (00027) fell by 4.96%, SANDS CHINA LTD (01928) dropped by 4.73%, MGM CHINA (02282) decreased by 3.66%, and WYNN MACAU (01128) declined by 2.64%. In terms of news, the Macao Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau announced that the gaming revenue in January was 18.254 billion Macanese Patacas, a year-on-year decrease of 5.6%; month-on-month, it rose by 0.29%. In December of last year, the gaming revenue was 18.202 billion Patacas, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, and a month-on-month decline of 1.28%, marking the full recovery of Macau post-pandemic.
What Investors Need to Know About the Macau Casino Sector