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CITIC SEC Coal 2024 performance outlook: The decline is in line with expectations, time to allocate for dividend leaders at low points.
In 2024, the prices of various coal types continued to decline, with an average decrease of 14%, and anthracite coal saw the largest price drop.
In December, China's import volume of CSI Commodity Equity Index showed a mixed trend, with iron ore remaining at a high level, while the import volume of Coal and Soybean reached a record high for the year.
In December, the year-on-year increase in unrefined Copper and copper materials, integrated circuits, iron ore and its concentrates ranked first, while the decline in finished oil was the largest. The import volume of iron ore has remained above 0.1 billion tons for six consecutive months, and the import volume of Coal has remained above 45 million tons for the sixth consecutive month.
High-dividend Coal Industrial Concept(coal Industry) stocks will be the "stable happiness" in 2024. The trend of Thermal Coal next year may fluctuate in a narrow range | 2025 outlook.
① The Coal Sector is expected to perform brilliantly in 2024, humorously referred to as the "most profitable track in A-shares"; ② Industry insiders anticipate that Thermal Coal prices will fluctuate within the Range next year.
National Bureau of Statistics: In November, the output of raw coal from large-scale industries was 0.43 billion tons, an increase of 1.8% year-on-year.
On December 16, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in November, the output of industrial raw coal from enterprises above designated size was 0.43 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%; the average daily output was 14.266 million tons.
Coal: can be both offensive and defensive, act according to timing.
The sector has investment value and there are also stage-specific trade opportunities.
Citic sec: The long-term agreement policy in 2025 may have a positive impact on coal companies with a higher proportion of long-term agreements.
The overall change in the 2025 long-term coal contract framework is not significant, with the signing ratio requirements being adjusted downwards each year.
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