Zhongzhong Research Institute: It is expected that the demand for shop leasing may be released in 2025, but short-term rents may continue to be under pressure.
Looking ahead to 2025, the office market may continue the weak state of 2024, remaining in a bottom consolidation period, with demand moderately recovering to some extent, but short-term rents may continue to face pressure.
The three major Hong Kong stock indices are steadily rising, with Real Estate stocks leading the performance due to bullish factors.
① What factors contributed to today's performance of the Hong Kong stock market? ② Why are Consumer Electronics-related stocks continuously favored by the market?
According to the index research, the cumulative decline in the prices of second-hand houses nationwide in the fourth quarter of 2024 is narrowing, and the prices in first-tier cities have shown significant stabilization.
According to data monitoring by the Middle Finger Research Institute, in the fourth quarter of 2024, the cumulative decline in second-hand housing prices across all tiers of cities has narrowed, with a significant stabilization in prices in first-tier cities.
The LPR remained unchanged in January. Will mortgage rates decrease again in 2025?
① Since January, the policy interest rates, which are the basis for LPR Quotes, have stabilized, suggesting that the January LPR Quote will remain unchanged. ② There is a possibility of interest rate cuts in the first half of 2025, with the total reduction expected to reach 50 basis points for the year, which is higher than the 30 basis points reduction from the previous year, leading to a significant downward adjustment of the LPR Quote.
Keenan Securities: Real Estate sales in the fourth quarter are stabilizing marginally, and the annual scale of starts and completions has significantly contracted.
The expected sales data for January is weak, and the sustainability of market recovery still needs to be observed.
Statistics Bureau: In 2024, national Real Estate Development investment is 10,028 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.6% compared to the previous year.
In 2024, the national Real Estate Development investment is 10,028 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.6%, of which Residence investment is 7,604 billion yuan, down 10.5%.
Real estate Bonds plummeted, with the decline of "0.21 million科02" expanding to 27% after a trading halt. This year, real estate companies still have over 500 billion Bonds to repay.
In 2024, the Real Estate Industry achieved a total domestic credit Bonds financing of 344.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.5%. In 2025, the maturing Bonds balance for real estate companies is 313.547 billion yuan, with a repurchase balance of 227.444 billion yuan, where March and June are peak repayment months.
The ranking of Real Estate companies in China based on delivery scale for 2024 has been released, with 8 companies delivering over 100,000 units.
On January 14, the Middle Finger Research Institute released the ranking of 2024 Real Estate companies' delivery scale in China.
From policy direction to market response: the 2025 Real Estate recovery and new opportunities in the ceramics Industry.
On September 26, 2024, the Central Politburo Meeting first proposed to "promote stabilization and recovery in the Real Estate market." This key decision sounded a strong policy note and became an important turning point for the Real Estate market in China.
Pan Gongsheng: The level of Real Estate transactions has improved, and research shows that residents' willingness to purchase homes is steadily increasing.
① Pan Gongsheng stated that recently the central government has further clarified that local government special Bonds can be used to recover idle stock land, acquire newly stored land, and purchase existing Commodity housing, which will accelerate the de-inventory process in the Real Estate market and stabilize the real estate market. ② According to the survey data released by the China Index Academy today, the willingness of residents to purchase homes has been stable with a slight increase recently; overall, most city markets are continuing to adopt a strategy of exchanging price for volume.
Hong Kong stocks are moving differently | Mainland Real Estate stocks plunged across the board in the morning session due to bearish concerns brought by the real estate companies. SUNAC (01918) once fell nearly 29%.
Mainland Real Estate stocks fell across the board. As of the time of writing, SUNAC (01918) is down 26.86%, trading at HKD 1.28; RONSHINECHINA (03301) is down 11.07%, trading at HKD 0.249; SHIMAO GROUP (00813) is down 8.42%, trading at HKD 0.87.
Zhongzhi Research Institute: In 2024, the Real Estate Industry will achieve a total of 565.31 billion yuan in Bonds financing, a year-on-year decrease of 18.4%.
According to the research, looking ahead to 2025, policy support is expected to drive expectations for recovery, but the Real Estate market still faces many challenges. Financing policies are expected to remain loose, but the scale of financing will still be influenced by the market recovery.
China's Property Market Likely Boosted by Year-End Campaigns -- Market Talk
It's once again the annual mortgage repricing day, and Banks personnel candidly state that "revenue pressure is increasing." How to stabilize the interest margin under the expectation of interest rate cuts?
① With the arrival of the repricing cycle on January 1st, many industry professionals who spoke with reporters from the Financial Association stated that "revenue pressure is increasing." ② Looking ahead to 2025, many experts believe that the policy interest rates need to be further lowered during the year, and mortgage rates will continue to decline. ③ From the perspective of the Industry, controlling costs remains the primary measure each bank is taking to ease the downward pressure on interest margins.
Key cities in the real estate market showed a "tail-end" finish in December last year, with expectations for year-on-year growth still being positive in the first quarter.
In December, the real estate market concluded with a "tail-up" trend, and it is expected that there will still be positive year-on-year growth in the first quarter.
At the end of 2024, the top 100 real estate companies will see a rebound in sales, with the number of companies exceeding one billion reduced to 11.
By the end of 2024, the sales of the top 100 real estate companies will show a tail end market trend; the number of billion-yuan and hundred-million-yuan real estate companies continues to decrease, with the number of billion-yuan companies further reduced to 11 in 2024, returning to the level of 2016.
Hong Kong stocks are experiencing fluctuations | Most Mainland Real Estate stocks are down as the top 100 property companies continue to consolidate their sales in 2024, and the Industry landscape continues to differentiate.
Most Mainland Real Estate stocks fell. As of the time of writing, CH OVS G OCEANS (00081) dropped 3.39%, trading at 1.71 Hong Kong dollars; SEAZEN (01030) fell 3.3%, trading at 1.76 Hong Kong dollars; RONSHINECHINA (03301) decreased by 2.67%, trading at 0.365 Hong Kong dollars.
Kerry Real Estate: It takes time for the real estate market recovery to translate into investment. It is expected that corporate investment will continue to be cautious and differentiated next year.
In 2025, the core cities are expected to see localized investment hot spots, led by state-owned enterprises.
2024 Shenzhen real estate summary: A record has been broken.
The housing market is facing headwinds.
Year-end review | In 2024, the CNI Yangtze Index mortgage rates will experience a "three consecutive declines". The LPR in 2025 is expected to continue to decrease, and mortgage rates are likely to stabilize at a low level.
① This year, the LPR has experienced three significant reductions, with the one-year LPR down a total of 35 basis points and the five-year LPR down a total of 60 basis points, both annual declines reaching new highs since the LPR reform. ② After the re-pricing at the beginning of 2025, the interest rate for existing first-time home loans will decrease by a total of 110 basis points to 3.3%. From the perspective of Consumer, the reduction in interest rates on existing home loans significantly boosts Consumer spending.