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Ping An Securities: Typical urban suburban areas have accumulated inventory and long turnover periods. It is expected that the bottoming out will lag behind the improvement of core areas and good products in the sector.
The path for the real estate industry to "stop falling and stabilize" will follow: "Good products — core areas in first-tier and second-tier cities — stabilization of the national economy — stabilization of the national housing market — stabilization of investment". Low-tier areas (suburbs of second-tier cities + third and fourth-tier cities) are hindered by high inventory levels, leading to a relatively delayed stabilization.
Guolian: The effects of the policy are becoming apparent, with marginal improvements in property/a-reit market sales in October.
According to the national statistics released in January-October 2024, the report on the basic situation of the national real estate market shows that the year-on-year decline in sales area, sales amount, and completed area has all narrowed.
Guolian Securities: Tax incentives implemented to promote real estate transactions and alleviate pressure on real estate companies.
This policy adjustment, on one hand, increases the 1% tax rate area standard from 90 square meters to 140 square meters, while on the other hand, reduces the tax rate for second homes, simultaneously lowering the home purchase costs for first-time buyers and upgraders, with an expected improvement on the demand side.
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[Brokerage Focus] Daiwa Securities pointed out that during the National Day holiday, sales of large real estate developers in mainland China exceeded expectations.
King's Financial News | Morgan Stanley's report shows that mainland large real estate developers' sales during the National Day Golden Week exceeded expectations, with an average year-on-year increase of 39%, accounting for 86% of September's contracted sales. It is highly likely to record double-digit monthly growth, with the year-on-year decline narrowing. Among them, China Resources Land (01109), Greentown China (03900), China Overseas Development (00688), C&D Intl Group (01908), and Yuexiu Property (00123) performed well. The bank expects a strong trend in the coming weeks with improved sentiment, but the sustainability of sales remains the key to outperforming the industry.
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