Goldman Sachs: Macau's gambling revenue last month met expectations. Bullish on Sands China and GALAXY ENT.
Goldman Sachs published a research report stating that Macau's gross gaming revenue decreased by 2% year-on-year last month, reaching 80% of the pre-epidemic level in 2019, which aligns with the expectations of the bank and the market. In the last two weeks of last month, the daily average gross gaming revenue was 0.603 billion Macau patacas, higher than the 0.571 billion Macau patacas in the first 14 days of the month. The gross gaming revenue from the mass market remains steadily at 1.1 times the pre-epidemic level. The report also mentioned that during a senior inspection visit to Macau, it was suggested to promote economic diversification in Macau, better coordinate development in Hengqin with Guangdong Province, and integrate with the Greater Bay Area. The bank maintains its expectation that this year Macau's gross gaming revenue will rise by 8% year-on-year, based on a reduction in cost pressures caused by inflation and competition, leading to more incremental revenue growth.
Hong Kong stocks are experiencing fluctuations | Macau Casino stocks extended their decline in the afternoon, with December Macau gaming revenue down 2% year-on-year, slightly below market expectations according to Morgan Stanley.
In the afternoon, Macau Casino stocks fell further. As of the time of reporting, Sands China (01928) fell by 4.07% to 20.05 HKD; GALAXY ENT (00027) dropped by 2.88% to 32.05 HKD; SJM HOLDINGS (00880) decreased by 1.86% to 2.64 HKD; MELCO INT'L DEV (00200) declined by 1.79% to 4.38 HKD.
Macau Casino Revenue Rose 24% in 2024 Despite Soft December Tally
Express News | Macau Says 2024 Gambling Revenue up 23.9 Pct From a Year Earlier to 226.8 Bln Patacas
Express News | Macau Says December Gambling Revenue Down 2 Pct From a Year Earlier to 18.2 Bln Patacas
Before the New Year's Day, Macau Casino stocks collectively rose, with Sands China (01928) up 2.18% and the average hotel room occupancy rate in Macau increasing to 89.7% in November.
Jinwu Financial News | Before the New Year's Day holiday, Macau Casino stocks collectively rose, with Sands China (01928) increasing by 2.18%, MGM China (02282) rising by 2.16%, and SJM Holdings (00880), GALAXY ENT (00027), and WYNN MACAU (01128) rising over 1%.
Hong Kong stock movement | Macau Casino stocks collectively fell, Sands China (01928) dropped over 4% as Macau's November gaming revenue decreased by 11.3% month-on-month.
Macau Casino stocks fell collectively. As of the time of writing, Sands China (01928) is down 4.37%, quoted at 20.8 HKD; MELCO INT'L DEV (00200) is down 2.86%, quoted at 4.41 HKD; GALAXY ENT (00027) is down 2.8%, quoted at 32.95 HKD.
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【Hong Kong Stock Connect】Sands China (01928): Macau is transforming into a Sports Entertainment capital, and will host the NBA preseason at the Venetian Macao in 2025.
Jinwu Finance | The CEO and President of Sands China (01928), Zheng Junluo, stated that Macau is gradually shifting its focus from Gambling to Sports and Entertainment, aiming to become a Global destination for hosting events, and transforming into a "Sports Capital" and "Entertainment City." He also indicated that Macau's Gambling revenue has recovered to about 80% of the 2019 level, with the number of visitors returning to pre-pandemic figures in August and October. At the beginning of December, Sands China reached an agreement with the USA's National Basketball Association (NBA) to hold two NBA preseason games in Macau each year for the next five years. He pointed out that the company's goal is not to host.
[Brokerage Focus] CITIC SEC expects that under the all-round stimulus of domestic demand policies, the Macau Gambling Sector is likely to further improve in terms of prosperity.
Jingwu Financial News | CITIC SEC stated that the December Politburo meeting has lifted the direction for Consumer recovery, considering that the core momentum for high-end Commodity/Service consumption among consumers in China comes more from the wealth effect. Therefore, based on the assumption that Real Estate is gradually stabilizing after a decline, the firm expects that the consumption growth rate in first-tier cities will rebound first. In a horizontal comparison, the firm is Bullish on Macau, as it celebrates the 25th anniversary of its return, where Gambling as a 'cyclical + high-end consumption' category may become a leading Indicator for domestic demand recovery. From an Industry perspective, GGR data for January to November 2024 is expected to recover to 77% of the same period in 2019.
[Brokerage Focus] Morgan Stanley: It is expected that total Gambling revenue in Macau will increase by 5% year-on-year in 2025, reaching 238 billion Macau dollars.
Jinwu Financial News | Morgan Stanley's recent Research Reports indicate that the Macau gambling industry is expected to achieve slight but stable growth by 2025. The report estimates that the total gambling revenue (GGR) in Macau will reach 238 billion patacas in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5%, while the earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) is projected to reach 8 billion dollars, a year-on-year increase of 6%. Although market expectations for the gambling industry are relatively cautious, Morgan Stanley believes that as various gambling companies increase investments in non-gambling sectors and improve service quality, market share and profitability are expected to further enhance. Morgan Stanley believes that although the growth rate is relatively mild.
Individual Investors Own 17% of Sands China Ltd. (HKG:1928) Shares but Public Companies Control 71% of the Company
According to JPMorgan, Macau Casino stocks lack positive catalysts in the short term, with GALAXY ENT (00027) being the top choice.
J.P. Morgan's recommended order is GALAXY ENT (00027), followed by WYNN MACAU (01128), SANDS CHINA (01928), and MGM CHINA (02282), then SJM HOLDINGS (00880), and lastly MELCO INT'L DEV (00200).
Hong Kong stocks fluctuate | Macau Casino stocks rose today as the market anticipates supportive policies for tourism in Macau. Morgan Stanley predicts a 3-4% growth in Macau's gaming revenue in the fourth quarter.
The Macau Casino stocks rose today, as of the time of this report, MGM CHINA (02282) increased by 4.09%, reporting at 10.18 HKD; SANDS CHINA (01928) increased by 4.28%, reporting at 21.95 HKD; GALAXY ENT (00027) increased by 1.94%, reporting at 36.85 HKD; MELCO INT'L DEV (00200) increased by 1.78%, reporting at 5.15 HKD.
J.P. Morgan: Macau's gambling revenue for the first eight days of December has slowed down as expected, with GALAXY ENT being the top choice for next year.
JPMorgan released a research report stating that the top choice among Macau Casino stocks for next year is GALAXY ENT (00027), with a "Shareholding" rating and a Target Price of HKD 48, reflecting its unique profit drivers and a low enterprise value multiple (EV/EBITDA) of 9 times. After that, WYNN MACAU (01128), SANDS CHINA (01928), and MGM CHINA (02282) are also expected to perform well (these three companies share the same ranking), followed by SJM HOLDINGS (00880), and lastly, MELCO INT'L DEV (00200). The report mentioned that the gross gaming revenue for Macau for the first eight days of December was 4.5 billion Macau patacas (down...
[Brokerage Focus] JPMorgan expects Q4 Macau Gambling revenue to increase by 3% to 4% quarter-on-quarter, with GALAXY ENT (00027) as the top pick.
Jinwu Financial News | JPMorgan released a research report indicating that the gross gaming revenue in Macau for the first eight days of December was 4.5 billion (Macau Pataca, the same below), which corresponds to a daily average of 0.562 billion Patacas, a 9% decrease compared to the average daily gaming revenue in November, but within expectations. During this period, the gross gaming revenue from the mass market business was about 105% of the pre-pandemic level, while VIP rooms recovered to about 20% to 23%. Although growth in gaming revenue is expected to slow in December, a quarterly increase of 3% to 4% is still anticipated for the fourth quarter, reaching the highest level in 20 quarters, and this growth momentum is believed to support the industry in meeting the general expectations for the fourth quarter and this fiscal year.
J.P. Morgan: Macau's Gambling revenue for the first eight days of December is expected to slow down month-on-month. The preferred choice for next year is GALAXY ENT (00027).
Morgan Stanley's order of stock selection for Macau Casino next year is GALAXY ENT (00027), WYNN MACAU (01128), SANDS CHINA (01928), and MGM CHINA (02282) (three companies ranked equally), followed by SJM HOLDINGS (00880) and MELCO INT'L DEV (00200).
Hong Kong stocks move | Macau casino stocks generally rise as Goldman Sachs expects synchronized growth in inbound and outbound tourism in mainland China next year, bullish on the industry benefiting from policy support.
Macau casino stocks generally rose. As of the time of writing, Sands China (01928) increased by 4.13% to 21.45 HKD; Galaxy Ent (00027) rose by 2.21% to 37.05 HKD; MGM China (02282) went up by 0.9% to 10.04 HKD; Wynn Macau (01128) increased by 0.67% to 6.04 HKD.
BROOKLYN NETS AND PHOENIX SUNS TO PLAY TWO PRESEASON GAMES IN MACAO IN OCTOBER 2025
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