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Debon Securities: Policies emphasize boosting Consumer and focus on the subsequent demand recovery.
The bank recommends focusing on leading companies in sectors that have strong control over upstream and downstream supply chains, channels, and products amid fundamental changes, as well as sectors where year-round profits are likely to exceed expectations due to cost advantages.
New tea beverages are accelerating reshuffling. Heytea pauses franchise expansion and does not participate in the "price and scale competition."
Analysts believe that the new tea beverage industry in China is currently entering a phase of intensified competition and elimination. The market growth rate of new tea beverages is expected to slow from 44.3% in 2023 to 12.4% in 2025. Among the leading brands, the closure rates of Hu Shang A Yi and Nayuki's Tea have both increased compared to 2023.
[New Stock IPO] Zhongtai International points out that the valuation of Gu Ming (01364) is slightly higher than that of Cha Baidao, giving it an IPO rating of 'neutral.'
Jinwu Finance | Guming (01364) starts its initial public offering today. Zhongtai International states that the company is a rapidly growing ready-to-drink beverage enterprise, mainly selling fruit tea, milk tea, and coffee among other drinks. Zhongtai International benchmarks against Hong Kong stock tea beverage companies, including Naixue's Tea (02150) and Chabaidao (02555); dining groups HAIDILAO (06862) and JIUMAOJIU (09922). In terms of valuation, the company's IPO price corresponds to a PE ratio of 16.9-19.3 times for 2023, with a PB ratio of 31.3-35.8 times, and the company's Operational Indicators align with those of its peer Chabaidao (02555).
Hong Kong stocks have shown fluctuations | Most Dining stocks are rising as the Consumer activity during the Spring Festival is high. Under policy stimulation, terminal Dining is expected to demonstrate resilience first.
Most Dining stocks rose; as of the time of writing, XIABUXIABU (00520) is up 8.43% at HK$0.9; HAIDILAO (06862) is up 6.42% at HK$14.92; JIUMAOJIU (09922) is up 6.06% at HK$2.8.
[Brokerage Focus] Morgan Stanley: Demand expectations in China's Dining channel are relatively low before the Spring Festival, with differentiated performance across various categories.
Jinwu Financial News | Morgan Stanley recently conducted research on Dealers in northern, eastern, and southern China to understand sales trends before the Spring Festival and goals for 2025. It was found that there are significant differences in market performance across categories, with generally low demand expectations. In terms of Baijiu(Chinese Liquor), the start has been rather weak. Some Dealers of Moutai reported a decline in demand before the Spring Festival of 2025, and non-Flying Moutai series products are facing pricing pressure. However, Flying Moutai remains relatively strong, with differing goals among Dealers in various regions for 2025. For example, a Dealer in the north expects the target for Flying Moutai to remain flat, with double-digit growth for series products. Wuliangye Yibin's target for 2025 is 1.
Yuanta Securities Upgrades Nayuki to Hold From Sell; Price Target Is HK$1.20
Nayuki Holdings Limited (HKG:2150) Could Be Less Than A Year Away From Profitability
