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Shareholders in China Mengniu Dairy (HKG:2319) Are in the Red If They Invested Three Years Ago
[Brokerage Focus] Morgan Stanley: Demand expectations in China's Dining channel are relatively low before the Spring Festival, with differentiated performance across various categories.
Jinwu Financial News | Morgan Stanley recently conducted research on Dealers in northern, eastern, and southern China to understand sales trends before the Spring Festival and goals for 2025. It was found that there are significant differences in market performance across categories, with generally low demand expectations. In terms of Baijiu(Chinese Liquor), the start has been rather weak. Some Dealers of Moutai reported a decline in demand before the Spring Festival of 2025, and non-Flying Moutai series products are facing pricing pressure. However, Flying Moutai remains relatively strong, with differing goals among Dealers in various regions for 2025. For example, a Dealer in the north expects the target for Flying Moutai to remain flat, with double-digit growth for series products. Wuliangye Yibin's target for 2025 is 1.
Hong Kong stocks movement | MENGNIU DAIRY (02319) rose over 3% as the demand for Dairy Products has improved month-on-month. Institutions are Bullish on the company's ability to maintain profit expansion.
MENGNIU DAIRY (02319) rose more than 3%, as of the time of writing, it rose by 3.55%, priced at 15.74 Hong Kong dollars, with a transaction amount of 0.245 billion Hong Kong dollars.
Dairy stocks collectively rebound, CHINA FEIHE (06186) rises by 3.11%. Goldman Sachs predicts a strong increase in the number of newborns in China in 2024.
Jinwu Financial News | Dairy stocks are collectively rebounding. As of the time of publication, AUSTASIA GROUP (02425) is up 7.37%, Youran Dairy (09858) is up 6.49%, CH MODERN D (01117) is up 3.61%, CHINA FEIHE (06186) is up 3.11%, and MENGNIU DAIRY (02319) is also increasing. On the news front, Goldman Sachs stated that in 2024, the number of newborns in China will reach 9.54 million, a year-on-year increase of 6%, higher than Goldman Sachs' expectations and the UN forecast, returning to the 2022 level and reversing the continuous decline trend since 2017, mainly due to the unexpected economic recovery after the pandemic and the Year of the Dragon.
Hong Kong stocks fluctuate | Dairy industry stocks warm up today as Goldman Sachs states that the number of newborns in 2024 exceeds expectations, which may ease pressures in the infant formula industry.
The dairy stocks have rebounded today. As of the time of this report, YouRan Dairy (09858) increased by 5.84%, reported at 1.63 HKD; CH MODERN D (01117) increased by 3.61%, reported at 0.86 HKD; CHINA FEIHE (06186) increased by 3.3%, reported at 5.32 HKD; MENGNIU DAIRY (02319) increased by 1.05%, reported at 15.4 HKD.
[Brokerage Focus] Goldman Sachs indicates that the number of newborns in China in 2024 will exceed expectations, expecting that the sales pressure in the milk powder Industry will be somewhat relieved.
Jinwu Finance News | Goldman Sachs released a Research Report on China's Consumer Industry, noting that the number of newborns in China will reach 9.54 million in 2024, an increase of 6% year-on-year, higher than Goldman Sachs' expectations and UN forecasts, recovering to 2022 levels and reversing the continuous decline since 2017, mainly due to better-than-expected economic recovery after the pandemic and the effects of the Year of the Dragon. In the baseline scenario, the number of newborns is expected to remain relatively stable by 2035; the bull market scenario assumes a total fertility rate of 1.4 in 2035, while the baseline scenario is 1.2 and the bear market scenario is 1.0. For 2025, the decline in the number of marriage registrations and the impact of the zodiac year are expected to affect this.
bullabull : The shares are too cheap that's why they keep buying back!