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HK stocks surged | Mengniu Dairy (02319) rose more than 4% again, with cash flow from dairy industry leaders hitting a new high. The dividend ratio still has potential for improvement.
Mengniu Dairy (02319) rose over 4%, as of press time, up 4.23% to HKD 13.52, with a turnover of HKD 0.133 billion.
Hong Kong stock market anomaly | Mengniu Dairy (02319) rose nearly 4% against the trend, raw material price reductions are enough to offset the impact of fierce competition, and institutions are bullish on the company strengthening shareholder returns.
Mengniu Dairy (02319) rose nearly 4% against the market, as of press time, up 3.34%, at HKD 12.98, with a turnover of HKD 0.169 billion.
Statistics of unusual proportion of intelligent Hong Kong stock connect|August 2nd
Statistics of abnormal proportion of Zhicheng Hong Kong Stock Connect on August 1, 2024.
Major banking rating | Macquarie: Predicting weak performance of Mengniu's first-half results, target price lowered to HKD 23.
Morgan Stanley's research report indicated that due to weak demand for milk and intense market competition, Mengniu's performance in the first half of the year is expected to be weak, and revenue and net profit are expected to decline by 6% and 24% respectively on an annual basis. However, considering that the industry's raw milk prices fell by more than 10% further in the first half of this year, Morgan Stanley believes that the decline in raw material prices is sufficient to offset the negative impact of market competition, and Mengniu's core operating profit margin in the first half of the year is expected to increase by 0.3 percentage points, which is in line with the guidance to increase the group's operating profit margin by 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points. The bank also pointed out that factors such as inventory write-down losses of whole milk powder and losses from pasture investment are not expected to continue into next year.
Declining Stock and Decent Financials: Is The Market Wrong About China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited (HKG:2319)?
Credit Suisse | Lyon downgrades target price for Mengniu and Yili, lowering earnings forecast from 2021 to 2026.
Lyon believes that China's raw milk prices have fallen by 12% year-on-year since this year, reflecting an imbalance in supply and demand, influenced by the slower-than-expected reduction in excess production capacity. The bank's channel survey shows that demand for liquid milk has weakened, with sales in May and June falling by double digits year-on-year. Currently, more discounts are in response to weak demand passively. It is expected that product prices will return to normal after demand picks up and inventory is cleared. Lyon prefers Mengniu, based on its low valuation, unchanged leadership position, and potential to improve shareholder returns. They also believe that the stock price has reflected the challenges facing it. The bank lowered its net income forecast for Mengniu from 10% to 14% from this year to 2026 and lowered its target price to 22.
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