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Important data released during the Two Sessions: the budget deficit rate is planned to be set at 4%, with an additional government debt of 11.86 trillion this year, and the bond market has performed relatively strongly.
① This year, the total new government debt reached 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan compared to last year, with a significant increase in fiscal spending intensity. ② Government bond Futures opened higher, the 30-year Block Orders rose by 0.27%, the 10-year Block Orders rose by 0.14%, the 5-year Block Orders rose by 0.09%, and the 2-year Block Orders rose by 0.04%.
The highest adjustment is a reduction of 50 basis points! Several small and medium-sized Banks have continuously lowered deposit interest rates in the first quarter, and it has become a "hard truth" to reduce the cost of liabilities while maintaining inte
① The first quarter is a key stage for the repricing of Bank loans, and it is expected that Bank interest margins will continue to decline. ② It is anticipated that the reduction in the cost of liabilities for listed Banks throughout 2025 is likely to exceed the level for the entire year of 2024. ③ Many Banks are trying to widen non-interest income, and even expand their Business overseas, but the effects are not as pronounced as reducing the cost of liabilities.
At the end of the month, there is still a gap in the amount of discounted bills. Under the price reduction by large banks, the 6-month national stock Silver bill interest rate has fallen below 1.2%.
① After the Spring Festival holiday, the sentiment for Bid in the note market among major Banks is relatively low, with many major Banks pressing prices to collect notes, and Volume is also on the decline. ② March, as the "big month for Crediting" for businesses, shows a trend of rising note interest rates again.
The bond market has undergone significant adjustments, facing redemption pressure, with the Fund experiencing nearly 20 billion in net Sell for several consecutive days.
① The increasing pressure for redemption in the bond market is mainly due to the expectations of cuts in reserve requirements and interest rates not materializing. ② From February 17 to 24, the Fund experienced six consecutive days of net Sell, with a total net Sell of 19.53 billion yuan. ③ How to operate in the future market?
Where is the "anchor point" for interest rates amid the correction in government bond Futures?
Guotou Securities believes that the Range of 1.80%-1.94% is a key observation point. If interest rates do not significantly break through this Range, it can be seen as a correction of the previous "overheating"; once it breaks through, caution is needed regarding changes in the market's mid-term expectations for the fundamentals.
The 30-year government bond Futures have fallen for three consecutive days, raising the question: Has the bond market adjusted sufficiently? Should short-term Funds that have turned to losses this year be redeemed?
① The bond market has been hit hard, with 30-year Treasury Futures falling for three consecutive days; ② More than 220 short bonds have already turned negative in ROI this year; ③ What are the reasons for the significant drop? Should redemption be considered?
