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Year-end review | In 2024, the CNI Yangtze Index mortgage rates will experience a "three consecutive declines". The LPR in 2025 is expected to continue to decrease, and mortgage rates are likely to stabilize at a low level.
① This year, the LPR has experienced three significant reductions, with the one-year LPR down a total of 35 basis points and the five-year LPR down a total of 60 basis points, both annual declines reaching new highs since the LPR reform. ② After the re-pricing at the beginning of 2025, the interest rate for existing first-time home loans will decrease by a total of 110 basis points to 3.3%. From the perspective of Consumer, the reduction in interest rates on existing home loans significantly boosts Consumer spending.
Brokerage morning meeting highlights: It is expected that 2025 will be the first year when the Real Estate Industry truly achieves stability and long-term development.
At today's Brokerage morning meeting, CITIC SEC proposed that 2025 will be the year when the Real Estate Industry truly stabilizes and moves forward; Tianfeng stated that industry demand is expected to recover, and the Autos Sector may gradually become optimistic; China Securities Co.,Ltd. pointed out that the current valuation of the Baijiu(Chinese Liquor) Sector remains low overall, highlighting its long-term investment value.
The land market in core cities is partially heated in 2024, and a differentiated market trend may continue next year | Promoting the stabilization of the real estate market.
① In 2024, changes in the Real Estate Industry's land market will become an undeniable chapter. ② The support of special bonds for the acquisition of existing land and the adjustment of land auction policies in first-tier cities may have a significant impact on the future land market.
Outperforming 92% of stocks within the year! The four major banks have reached a new high again, and this month they have all faced Shareholding reductions by financing clients.
① Today, the stock prices of the four major banks collectively set new historical highs, with an average increase of nearly 47% this year, outperforming 92% of stocks during the same period. ② Excluding new stocks, a total of 10 stocks reached historical highs today, most of which are CNI Mid-Small Cap.Index stocks, with a relatively high number of Transportation stocks. ③ The four major banks have all experienced shareholding reductions by financing clients this month, including the Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China, which has seen a net sell-off of nearly 0.2 billion yuan in financing this month.
Why has the implementation of Real Estate 'acquisition' been slow?
① "Although some places have announced the situation of storage, overall, the acquisition of stock land and commercial housing in various regions faces multiple difficulties, making the related implementation work not easy." ② Whether it is repurchasing idle land or acquiring existing commercial housing, there is a certain time interval from raising funds to completing the storage; how to ensure that funds can be effectively circulated within a certain period and achieve expected returns is also a factor that various regions have to consider.
After long-term bonds fell below 2%, insurance funds shifted towards equity assets, with high dividend and high ROE being the top choices.
Recently, the yield on 30-year government bonds has fallen below 2.0%. Guosen believes that the central tendency of long-term bond rates continues to decline, and the pressure on investment income from insurance funds is further increasing. Since the beginning of this year, companies represented by Great Wall Life, China Pacific Insurance, and Ruizhong Life have been increasing their stakes in high-quality listed companies, mainly concentrated in industries such as utilities, transportation, and Banks, which have high dividend yields and relatively stable ROE levels.
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