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It's once again the annual mortgage repricing day, and Banks personnel candidly state that "revenue pressure is increasing." How to stabilize the interest margin under the expectation of interest rate cuts?
① With the arrival of the repricing cycle on January 1st, many industry professionals who spoke with reporters from the Financial Association stated that "revenue pressure is increasing." ② Looking ahead to 2025, many experts believe that the policy interest rates need to be further lowered during the year, and mortgage rates will continue to decline. ③ From the perspective of the Industry, controlling costs remains the primary measure each bank is taking to ease the downward pressure on interest margins.
At the end of 2024, the top 100 real estate companies will see a rebound in sales, with the number of companies exceeding one billion reduced to 11.
By the end of 2024, the sales of the top 100 real estate companies will show a tail end market trend; the number of billion-yuan and hundred-million-yuan real estate companies continues to decrease, with the number of billion-yuan companies further reduced to 11 in 2024, returning to the level of 2016.
On the first trading day of the New Year, Bank stocks opened high and then fell back. Many Institutions: the opening performance may be better than in previous years, but the trend of declining net interest margin remains unchanged.
① The crediting ratio between each quarter is expected to recover to a ratio of 4:3:2:1. ② It is expected that policy trends will continue, gradually boosting demand in the Real Estate sector. ③ This year, the decline in net interest margin for Banks is narrower compared to 2024, with a calculated interest margin of 1.34% under neutral assumptions.
Year-end review | In 2024, the CNI Yangtze Index mortgage rates will experience a "three consecutive declines". The LPR in 2025 is expected to continue to decrease, and mortgage rates are likely to stabilize at a low level.
① This year, the LPR has experienced three significant reductions, with the one-year LPR down a total of 35 basis points and the five-year LPR down a total of 60 basis points, both annual declines reaching new highs since the LPR reform. ② After the re-pricing at the beginning of 2025, the interest rate for existing first-time home loans will decrease by a total of 110 basis points to 3.3%. From the perspective of Consumer, the reduction in interest rates on existing home loans significantly boosts Consumer spending.
Brokerage morning meeting highlights: It is expected that 2025 will be the first year when the Real Estate Industry truly achieves stability and long-term development.
At today's Brokerage morning meeting, CITIC SEC proposed that 2025 will be the year when the Real Estate Industry truly stabilizes and moves forward; Tianfeng stated that industry demand is expected to recover, and the Autos Sector may gradually become optimistic; China Securities Co.,Ltd. pointed out that the current valuation of the Baijiu(Chinese Liquor) Sector remains low overall, highlighting its long-term investment value.
The land market in core cities is partially heated in 2024, and a differentiated market trend may continue next year | Promoting the stabilization of the real estate market.
① In 2024, changes in the Real Estate Industry's land market will become an undeniable chapter. ② The support of special bonds for the acquisition of existing land and the adjustment of land auction policies in first-tier cities may have a significant impact on the future land market.
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