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The LPR remained unchanged in January. Will mortgage rates decrease again in 2025?
① Since January, the policy interest rates, which are the basis for LPR Quotes, have stabilized, suggesting that the January LPR Quote will remain unchanged. ② There is a possibility of interest rate cuts in the first half of 2025, with the total reduction expected to reach 50 basis points for the year, which is higher than the 30 basis points reduction from the previous year, leading to a significant downward adjustment of the LPR Quote.
Keenan Securities: Real Estate sales in the fourth quarter are stabilizing marginally, and the annual scale of starts and completions has significantly contracted.
The expected sales data for January is weak, and the sustainability of market recovery still needs to be observed.
[Brokerage Focus] Ping An Securities: As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the real estate Industry is expected to enter a period of sluggish transactions in the short term.
Jinwoo Financial News | Ping An Securities has released its monthly report on the real estate Industry. With the approach of the Spring Festival holiday, it is expected that short-term transactions will enter a period of stagnation. In the mid-term view, the current high point of the property market in terms of volume and price has clearly receded. Coupled with the reduction of down payments and interest rates, the threshold for residents to purchase property has significantly improved. Although the existing inventory is high and expectations for housing prices and income still constrain the property market's performance, it is believed that the sharp decline in the market has passed. As more high-efficiency, high-quality products enter the market, some demand may flow back from the second-hand housing market to the new housing market, leading to a stabilization of high-quality products in the market first. The short-term focus should be on the performance from after the Spring Festival to March. On the indiv
Statistics Bureau: In 2024, national Real Estate Development investment is 10,028 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.6% compared to the previous year.
In 2024, the national Real Estate Development investment is 10,028 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.6%, of which Residence investment is 7,604 billion yuan, down 10.5%.
Real estate Bonds plummeted, with the decline of "0.21 million科02" expanding to 27% after a trading halt. This year, real estate companies still have over 500 billion Bonds to repay.
In 2024, the Real Estate Industry achieved a total domestic credit Bonds financing of 344.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.5%. In 2025, the maturing Bonds balance for real estate companies is 313.547 billion yuan, with a repurchase balance of 227.444 billion yuan, where March and June are peak repayment months.
Sinolink Securities: The scale of the top 100 real estate companies is waiting to stabilize, with central state-owned enterprises dominating the market.
It is expected that the volume of commodity housing transactions will stabilize and gradually boost market confidence by 2025, reversing the downward expectations for housing prices.
