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[Brokerage Focus] SWHY expects the Real Estate Industry to bottom out and maintains a 'Bullish' rating on Real Estate and property management.
Gold Eagle Financial News | SWHY stated that over the past three years, China's Real Estate sector has undergone deep adjustments, and the effects of relaxed policies during this period have been limited. The bank believes that the core issue lies not in insufficient demand, but in the weakening of residents' balance sheets. The statements in September to 'stop the decline and stabilize' and in December to 'stabilize the Real Estate and stock markets' clarified the policy approach to repairing residents' balance sheets, demonstrating stronger policy effectiveness than before. The policy has entered a more targeted trajectory, and it is expected that more proactive and substantial policies will be introduced subsequently, with the Industry likely to reach a bottom. Considering that mid-term demand has support but short-term supply has constraints, the bank forecasts that the total will still be skewed next year.
Statistics Bureau: From January to November, national Real Estate Development investment decreased by 10.4% year-on-year.
Today, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that from January to November, national Real Estate Development investment was 9363.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%; among which, Residence investment was 7119 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.5%.
CITIC SEC: The policy framework continues in 2025, with increased policy support helping the Real Estate sector stabilize and rebound.
In the medium to long term, China's real estate market has a broad base of genuine demand, and the supply-side reform has basically been completed, providing a promising development prospect for high-quality Real Estate Development companies.
Kayin Securities: Maintaining a "buy" rating on greentown china (03900). Steady and proactive land acquisition in the open market.
Open Source Securities expects greentown china's net income attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 to be 3.654, 4.397, and 5.07 billion yuan.
Hong Kong stocks move | Mainland real estate stocks opened higher across the board. The Political Bureau meeting emphasized to "stabilize the real estate market," and policies for both supply and demand in real estate are expected to increase.
Mainland real estate shares opened higher across the board. As of the time of writing, sunac (01918) rose 13.84% to HKD 3.29; ronshinechina (03301) rose 13.73% to HKD 0.58; radiance hldgs (09993) rose 12.65% to HKD 3.74.
Standard Chartered: It is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 125 basis points from the current period to the third quarter of next year. The housing market in Hong Kong is expected to stabilize in an L-shaped manner next year.
Although the usa's interest rate cut is slower than expected in both magnitude and speed, Hong Kong silver has reacted quite quickly to follow the usa's interest rate cut, hence it is expected that the real estate market will stabilize in an L-shaped manner next year.
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