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The transformation of the Banking Industry in adversity in 2024: the mud and dawn of the "light asset" vision.
How far is dawn?
On the first trading day of the New Year, Bank stocks opened high and then fell back. Many Institutions: the opening performance may be better than in previous years, but the trend of declining net interest margin remains unchanged.
① The crediting ratio between each quarter is expected to recover to a ratio of 4:3:2:1. ② It is expected that policy trends will continue, gradually boosting demand in the Real Estate sector. ③ This year, the decline in net interest margin for Banks is narrower compared to 2024, with a calculated interest margin of 1.34% under neutral assumptions.
Bank stocks have surged for several consecutive days, and the Hang Seng Index has recovered to 20,000 points. Bullish Signals from the fiscal side are favorable for the continuation of the rebound | Hong Kong stock barometer.
① The Hang Seng Index stands above the 20,000-point mark; why is it so strong in the short term? ② The fiscal side releases Bullish Signals; can it help sustain the rebound?
Outperforming 92% of stocks within the year! The four major banks have reached a new high again, and this month they have all faced Shareholding reductions by financing clients.
① Today, the stock prices of the four major banks collectively set new historical highs, with an average increase of nearly 47% this year, outperforming 92% of stocks during the same period. ② Excluding new stocks, a total of 10 stocks reached historical highs today, most of which are CNI Mid-Small Cap.Index stocks, with a relatively high number of Transportation stocks. ③ The four major banks have all experienced shareholding reductions by financing clients this month, including the Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China, which has seen a net sell-off of nearly 0.2 billion yuan in financing this month.
At the end of the year, the capital inflow dividend Assets for Hong Kong stocks in China Mainland Banking showed a collective short-term strength.
① What changes are occurring in the trend of end-of-year capital return to Assets? ② China Mainland Banking stocks in the Hong Kong market are collectively strengthening in the short term; which individual stocks are attracting capital attention?
In order to respond to the "intense battle" next year? At the end of the year, many Banks are making intensive adjustments to their Business structure, and the special mechanism for the "five major articles" is gradually being established.
① First, merging the functions of the head office departments clearly indicates a reduction in costs and an increase in efficiency; second, a special department dedicated to the five major articles is being established. ② Retailing Crediting may become one of the focal points for Banks next year. ③ It is expected that the special institutions for the five major articles will be established gradually, as each one matures.
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