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Founder Securities: Prices of non-ferrous industry and industrial metals are weakening, and gold prices are reaching new highs.
Domestic demand for industrial metals has entered the off-season, coupled with increasing expectations of a U.S. economic downturn. Industrial metal prices may remain weak, and attention can be paid to downstream demand changes in the off-season. In addition, the expectation of interest rate cuts is gradually fermenting, coupled with the weakening of the U.S. credit system, and the short-term gold price may maintain a high-level shock trend.
CITIC Securities: Domestic and foreign large storage demand continues to improve, pay attention to manufacturers with high proportion of overseas shipments.
The sustained increase in domestic and international energy storage demand is mainly due to factors such as policy support, cost reduction, new energy regulation demand, and electricity grid construction demand.
Cui Dongshu: In June, 43 GWh of lithium batteries were installed, with phosphate iron lithium batteries accounting for 74%, and the growth of ternary batteries slowing down.
In June, the shipment volume of lithium batteries was 43 GWh, a 30% YoY increase; the shipment volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 32 GWh, accounting for 74%, and the growth of ternary batteries slowed down. From January to June, the shipment volume of lithium batteries was 203 G, with a YoY increase of 34%.
The surplus situation is difficult to change, and the price of lithium carbonate continues to decline! How long can the cost line of 0.08 million yuan/ton last?
Approaching the cost line
Soochow Securities: domestic forklift lithium battery short delivery advantage can be sustained, bullish on increasing market share and structural optimization for going abroad.
In 2024, under the trend of tightening eco-friendly policies, the stock of National IV diesel vehicles will replace National II and below diesel vehicles, and the penetration rate of high-value lithium electric forklifts will increase. Domestic sales are expected to continue to grow, optimizing the structure.
The contradiction between supply and demand is prominent! The price of lithium carbonate continues to fall, and the cost line of 80,000 yuan/ton is in danger.
Due to oversupply and continuous insufficient demand, the price of lithium carbonate has been falling steadily in the recent period.
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