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Citic sec: Global demand remains strong, and the leading potash fertilizer producer's production cut may raise prices.
Citic sec predicts that the supply and demand for global potassium fertilizer will be tight in 2025, and potassium fertilizer prices are expected to rebound from the bottom.
Sinolink: Potash fertilizer supply is expected to be jointly controlled, and resource prices are expected to provide support.
Only 11 companies have a potassium chloride production capacity exceeding 2 million tons, mainly concentrated in Canada nutrien, Belarus Belaruskali, Russia Uralkali, and the usa Mosaic, with a combined production capacity accounting for 67.26% of the industry, high industry concentration.
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CICC: Global potassium fertilizer production capacity is limited, bullish on the industry's outlook.
In 2024, the contract price for imported potash fertilizer is CFR $273 per ton, and the corresponding domestic market price including taxes is estimated to be around 2,300 yuan per ton. Considering the support role of the contract price of potash fertilizer and the subsequent gradual entry into the peak season for fertilizer use, I am bullish on the maintenance of a prosperous domestic potash fertilizer price.
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