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USA CPI hits record high, does the Global market gain from misfortune? Bank of America Hartnett: Trump's "soft spot" has been exposed.
Analyst Michael Hartnett pointed out that inflation in the USA is surging, indicating that in the coming months, Trump must "play small" on tariffs and immigration issues instead of making "big moves" to avoid triggering a second wave of inflation.
The expectations for tariffs continue to ferment, causing significant fluctuations in Copper within a week.
Recently, the main factors driving the prices of gold and copper are expectations regarding tariffs. In addition to the anticipated 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, many Institutions predict that the Trump administration may impose a 10% tax on imported refined copper. Gold and copper prices on COMEX continue to strengthen, especially the premium of copper prices compared to other market prices has rapidly widened, reaching a historic high. On Friday, copper prices fell sharply; on one hand, USA retail data showed significant weakness, and on the other hand, there may be new news about tariffs, causing price spreads to narrow significantly as prices fell, with gold prices also following suit in the correction.
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It has been proven that inflation in the USA skyrocketed even before Trump's tariff increases.
① The latest CPI data released on Wednesday proves that the "trigger" for re-inflation in the USA had already been ignited before the Trump administration announced tariffs on China and Aluminum and Steel in February; ② An interesting observation is emerging again: will the Federal Reserve still stubbornly believe that the continuous rise in inflation is only temporary?
The U.S. government deficit is flashing red again! The deficit for the first four months of the fiscal year reached 84 billion dollars, setting a record and exceeding the peak period of the pandemic.
As of January this year, in the first four months of the 2025 fiscal year, the USA federal government's budget deficit expanded by 58% year-on-year, with government revenue and expenditure both reaching record highs for the period, increasing by 1% and 15% year-on-year, respectively. In the first four months, government interest costs amounted to 392 billion dollars, accounting for 16% of total expenditure; the budget deficit for January reached 129 billion dollars, the second highest level after January during the COVID-19 pandemic. In January, government expenditure increased by 29% year-on-year, while revenue grew by 7.5%.