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The Global market reassesses the narrative of "American exceptionalism"; Morgan Stanley: US bonds are the biggest beneficiaries.
Morgan Stanley pointed out that the narrative of "American exceptionalism" has lost the support of growth expectations. Since September 2024, U.S. Treasury yields have continued to decline amid market volatility and are now close to the 200-day moving average. Further declines in U.S. Treasury yields require a "dovish" shift in Federal Reserve policy, and the current market pricing of the Federal Reserve's policy rate has shown a distinct downward trend.
U.S. Treasury bonds have outperformed U.S. stocks, marking the first time since Trump's election.
Since Trump's election as president, USA government bonds have outperformed US stocks for the first time. Strategists indicate that there is still room for US bonds to rise.