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What does the Federal Reserve's "Skip" mean for the market?
Citi Research found that during the period when the Federal Reserve pauses interest rate cuts, the U.S. stock market usually performs well, but the sustainability of the rise depends on whether economic weakness leads to a restart of policy easing; U.S. Treasury rates usually rise at the pause or end of the cycle; for the dollar, if the interest rate cuts are only paused, the dollar performs laterally, if it is the last interest rate cut, the dollar will rise; after the pause, regardless of whether the easing cycle continues, Gold prices usually rise.
Bond Traders Turn to 2025 Amid Most Agonizing Easing in Decades
Stagflation Fears and Soaring US Yields: S&P 500's Next Move
In October, China's holdings of US Treasury bonds hit their lowest level in over 15 years! Is the trend of reducing US Treasury bonds beginning to spread Global?
① On Thursday local time, the USA Treasury released the International Capital Flow Report (TIC) for October 2024; ② The report showed that the amount of US Treasury bonds held by foreign investors ended five consecutive months of growth in October; ③ Led by Japan and China, as many as seven of the top ten "creditors" of the USA chose to reduce their Shareholding that month. Meanwhile, China's US Treasury Hold Positions further hit a new low since 2009.
The Federal Reserve's hawkish actions have triggered a significant change in U.S. Treasury bonds! The yield curve has reached its steepest point since 2022.
Long-term USA government bonds weakened on Thursday, causing the yield curve to steepen significantly, returning to levels seen about 30 months ago.
Why Treasury Yields Are Rising Again and What to Do With Bonds Now