Is the bull market coming to an end? With bleak profit prospects and concerns from Trump, foreign capital sold off 5 billion dollars in Indian stocks.
Since January, Global Funds have net withdrawn $5.4 billion from the Indian stock market, marking the largest monthly withdrawal scale since October 2023. Within less than 24 hours of Trump's inauguration, the NSE volatility Index continued its four-day rise, reaching levels not seen since August.
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Indonesia unexpectedly cut interest rates, and India has loosened its fluctuations. Are central banks in Asia ready to abandon the "MMF defense battle"?
Under the pressure of a prolonged economic downturn, some central banks in Asia have begun to prioritize boosting the economy rather than managing Exchange Rates.
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India's CPI continues to cool, which may support further interest rate cuts, but can the rupee withstand it.
In December, India's CPI rose 5.22% year-on-year, lower than the Analyst's expectation of 5.30%, marking the lowest growth rate since August 2024. Although falling inflation data has created room for the Reserve Bank of India to cut interest rates, factors such as the depreciation of the rupee and slowing economic growth still pose challenges for interest rate reductions in India.
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Has the Indian stock market hit bottom? There is a divergence on Wall Street.
Since the peak last September, India's benchmark stock index Nifty 50 Index has fallen over 10%, entering a correction zone. Some believe that slowing corporate earnings will drag down India's stock market performance this year, but most opinions remain bullish on Indian stocks, expecting a possible decline in the fiscal deficit rate, increased government investment in infrastructure, and a return of Indian stock valuations to a reasonable range to support the recovery of Indian stocks.
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Is the new low just the beginning? Former India central bank officials hint at "relaxing Forex controls". How much further will the rupee fall?
Former central bank officials hinted at "easing Forex controls," causing the rupee to briefly dip below the 86 mark. Mitsubishi UFJ believes that the current account deficit as a percentage of GDP is widening, foreign direct investment (FDI) performance is disappointing, and under the risk of Trump 2.0 tariffs, the rupee will fall to 86.80 in the first quarter and to 88.50 in the fourth quarter.
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