90K : What a rubbish article...

tian liang :

d4r : good time to buy?

bullrider_21 OP d4r : I think it's ok to buy.

bullbearnme : I dont believe in this estimate projection

DoRaeMi : Bro, their growth is indeed 3.9%, but the method of how they calculate is different from the rest of the world? Don't tell me u never noticed that?
China growth is based on the amount of "goods produce", but in actual fact not sold or exported. Thus, they are known for "over-producing" just like their EV
The world GDP Calculation is based on sold product or goods exported. That's why u can see US GDP is decreasing while China GDP is increasing even during COVID-19 period, which made no absolute sense

ZnWC OP bullbearnme : Someone may say the projected GDP is biased as it is different from China official forecast. Gao (economist at SDIC security and based in China) also projected a similar GDP figure based on his analysis data.
Due to strict censorship in China, it is difficult to find other opposing voices. I have provided a YouTube video link which explained in clarity on how Gao used analysis data to point out the official GDP is not accurate.
- YouTube

Lewis TEG : report show purchasing power parties drop to the lowest in 12 years.  This matches the forecast of GDP. Well, it looks like consumer goods are going to get a hit.

ZnWC OP : The 27 analysts surveyed by Nikkei Asia revised their GDP forecast for 2025 to 4.4%, representing a 0.1 percentage point decline from the previous prediction. The outlook for 2026 also indicates a downward trend, with economists anticipating GDP growth of 4.1%.
Despite the looming uncertainties, some economists remain optimistic. Kenny Ng, securities strategist at Everbright Securities International, expects China to achieve 4.9% growth in 2025, citing Beijing's ongoing efforts to stabilize the property and financial markets.
However, others express more cautious sentiments. Wang Tao, UBS chief China economist, forecasts a slower GDP growth of 4.0% in 2025, warning that US tariff hikes will likely further strain the property market.
J.P. Morgan Chief China Economist Haibin Zhu offers the most pessimistic outlook, predicting a mere 3.9% GDP growth in 2025. Zhu warns that the tariff hike could negatively impact growth by nearly 2 percentage points, prompting potential retaliatory measures from Beijing.
Source:
China's GDP growth to decelerate to 4.4% in 2025, say economists
Or
China's Economic Growth to Decelerate in 2025, Says Economists
It said a turnaround in the China property market was not expected until late 2025. The World Bank forecasts growth in China will slow to 4.5% for 2025.
Someone said the 4.9% forecast is more reliable. Having such a mindset is childish and not thinking from the economic perspective. As shown above, the difference in China's GDP growth forecast is due to the different view about risk. Some forecasts seem to be more pessimistic because they weigh more on the risk that the US tariff hike may bring. It is also important is to read from more than one forecast and the reasons behind it.