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How do you view the recent "hawkish" stance of the Bank of Japan executives? Goldman Sachs: The next interest rate hike may still have to wait until January next year.
Goldman Sachs believes that when evaluating the timing of interest rate hikes, it is important to consider financial market stability and inflation trends. The bank predicts that January next year will be the best time to determine whether Japan's inflation will rebound, and based on this, determine that Japan will raise interest rates in January. However, if there is significant turmoil in the financial markets, the timing of the rate hike may become uncertain.
After the hawkish remarks of central bank officials, hedge funds are betting on further appreciation of the yen.
Hedge funds are increasing their call bets on the yen in the options market, expecting the yen to continue its upward trend this quarter.
The selling pressure from the high yen and selling off before the 3-day weekend is a burden.
The Nikkei average fell. It ended trading at 36,581.76 yen, down 251.51 yen (with an approximate volume of 1.73 billion30 million shares). Buying took the lead from the start based on the rise of major stock price indices in the previous day's US market, and the Nikkei average rose to 36,887.40 yen just after the start of trading. However, as buying did not continue and the yen rose to the 140 yen range against the dollar, selling increased in export-related stocks, leading the Nikkei average to drop to 36,441.34 yen shortly after the start of afternoon trading.
The Nikkei average fell, as the yen strengthened, but there is a cautious stance ahead of the three-day weekend.
On the 12th, the US stock market continued to rise. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 41,096.77, up 235.06 points (+0.58%), the Nasdaq rose 174.15 points (+1.00%) to 17,569.68, and the S&P 500 rose 41.63 points (+0.75%) to 5,595.76. The August Producer Price Index (PPI) exceeded expectations, but the outlook for continued interest rate cuts remains unchanged. Semiconductor stocks such as Nvidia were strong and rose after the opening. At the same time, there was a gradual easing trend.
It is easy for buying to come in with the aim of waiting for a pullback before the 3-day weekend.
[Stock Opening Comment] The Japanese stock market on the 13th is expected to determine its resilience after a round of buying. The August US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.2% compared to the previous month, exceeding market expectations (0.1% increase). The European Central Bank (ECB) policy committee announced a policy rate cut for the second consecutive meeting as expected. The Federal Reserve (FRB) is expected to lower interest rates by 0.25% at next week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, and a continuous adjustment is expected to be made in line with this pace.
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