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The decline, awareness of the slowdown in the pace of Fed rate cuts is growing.
Overview of last week, from December 16 to December 20. Nikkei average high: 39,796.22 yen, low: 38,355.52 yen, closing price: 38,701.9 yen, compared to the previous week: -1.95% ↓ decline, with increasing awareness of the slowdown in the pace of interest rate cuts in the USA. Ahead of financial events, there was heavy movement on the upside from the beginning of the week, but after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the slowdown in the pace of interest rate cuts in the USA for 2025 became strongly conscious, leading to further widening of the decline. The Bank of Japan's decision to refrain from additional rate hikes provided some support.
A pullback, in a market environment where interest in large Main Board stocks is high.
Overview for last week, from December 16 to December 20: Tokyo Stock Exchange Growth Index high: 643.49, low: 624.65, closing: 624.89, compared to the previous week: -3.09% ↓ declined, amidst a high interest in Large Cap on the Main Board. With attention turning to the central bank meetings of Japan and the U.S., there was also news considered material about discussions on a management integration between NISSAN MOTOR CO <7201> and Honda <7267>, leading to a high interest in Large Cap on the Main Board. After the financial policy events, the focus remains on Large Cap stocks in the Main market.
Developments while keeping an eye on the exchange rate.
The Nikkei average has fallen for six consecutive trading days. It ended the day at 38,701.90 yen, down 111.68 yen (estimated Volume of 2.7 billion 10 million shares). Following the yen's depreciation after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's press conference, there was buying in export-related stocks, such as Automobiles, and the Nikkei average began to rebound. Towards the end of the morning session, it rose to 39,039.68 yen. However, after Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato expressed concerns over the fluctuations in the foreign exchange market, including speculative movements, it was a trigger for short-term Futures.
The Nikkei average fell for the sixth consecutive day, closing at a low due to the decline in financial stocks.
On the 19th, the U.S. Stocks market was mixed. The Dow Inc. rose by $15.37 to close at $42,342.24, while the Nasdaq fell by 19.93 points to end at $19,372.77. After the opening, the market experienced an upward movement. The sharp drop the previous day, due to the indication from the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) of a slowdown in the pace of additional interest rate cuts during the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), was seen as an overreaction, leading to a wave of buying. The domestic Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the July to September period was revised upward, and new unemployment Insurance claims were announced in the morning.
December 20 [Today's Investment Strategy]
[Fisco Selected Stocks] 【Material Stocks】 Cybozu <4776> 2144 yen (12/19) engages in the development, sales, and operation of groupware such as 'kintone'. The year-end Dividends forecast for the fiscal year ending December 2024 has been revised to 'undecided'. The previous estimate was 15 yen, and the one before that was 14 yen. It is being considered for an increase, and it is scheduled to be announced immediately after it is confirmed. Additionally, the performance forecast for the fiscal year ending December 2025 was announced. The operating profit is estimated to be 8.437 billion yen.
Attention is being paid to Cybozu and Nihon Litec, while Kadokawa and others are showing weakness.
In the U.S. stock market on the 19th, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by $15.37 to 42,342.24, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell by 19.93 points to 19,372.77, and the Chicago Nikkei 225 Futures dropped by 60 yen to 39,020 yen compared to the Osaka day. The exchange rate is 1 dollar = 157.30-40 yen. In today's Tokyo market, Cybozu <4776> announced that it is considering an increase in the year-end Dividends for the year ending December 2024, and that the operating profit for the year ending December 2025 is expected to be 8.437 billion yen, which is 2.0 times the current year's Financial Estimates.