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Guosheng Securities: It is expected that the extreme value of this round of pig cycle will appear from September to November, and the bullish market may start again.
It is expected that the extreme values of this cycle will appear in September to November 2024, which is also the traditional peak season for pig consumption. The marginal improvement of demand or the strengthening of price performance.
Hong Kong stock market concept tracking | Pig cycle continues to recover, many pig enterprises significantly increase profits in the second quarter (including concept stocks).
With the recovery of the pig cycle in the first half of this year, pig prices have also started to rise and surpassed the highest level of the past three years in June.
Wens Foodstuff Group (300498.SZ): In June, the sales revenue of pig meat was 5.201 billion yuan, an increase of 11.61% month-on-month.
Zh Tong Finance APP reported that Wens Foodstuff Group (300498.SZ) issued an announcement that as of June 2024, the company sold a total of 92.4956 million broilers (including live chickens, fresh products, and cooked food), with a revenue of 2.625 billion yuan. The average price of live chickens sold was 13.68 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month change of -1.83%, -3.46%, and -1.08%, and a year-on-year change of -2.02%, 2.86%, and 6.71%. The company sold 2.3325 million pigs (including live pigs and fresh products) in June 2024, with a revenue of 5.201 billion yuan. The average price of live pigs sold was 18.10 yuan/kg.
Huafu Securities: Pig prices are rising again, and the profit cycle of this round is expected to be extended.
In early July, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening in the northern market is average, with more replenishment than sales. The incremental increase in the secondary breeding combined with the slow pace of market supply at the beginning of the month has caused pig prices to fluctuate upward.
GF Securities: Pig prices are expected to rise again in July, and the trend of aquatic product price recovery will continue.
According to a report by GF SEC on Zhicheng Finance APP, due to factors such as the previous clearance of production capacity, pig prices have maintained a high shake state in June, with an average profit of more than RMB 300/head for self-breeding. With the subsequent seasonal recovery of demand, pig prices are expected to rise again in July. Benefiting from the previous decline in raw material prices and the improvement in epidemic prevention efficiency, the cost of slaughter has entered a rapidly declining channel. Looking forward to the third quarter, pig breeding companies are expected to fully benefit from the expanding "scissors difference" between rising pig prices and falling costs, and the overall profitability level is expected to exceed market expectations. In terms of aquatic feed, in June, the price of common water fish was suppressed due to the end of the seeding season and relatively weak consumption.
Guosheng Securities: Where does the elasticity of pig prices come from?
Since June, the national average price of live pigs has been on the rise, but there has not been any relatively aggressive breeding operation in the industry. Considering the change rhythm of sow in 2023 and the consumption elasticity of the year, the reduction of supply is still continuing, and the seasonal increase of consumption is about to come.
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