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[Brokerage Focus] gtja: "Stability" will still be the keyword for the coal industry in 2025.
Jinwu Finance News | gtja stated that looking ahead to 2025, 'stability' remains the key word for the coal industry, with coal prices having a bottom and marginal supply and demand slightly weakening. The bank determines that under the assumption of neutral policy expectations, the paper-based marginal supply and demand of coal will slightly weaken compared to 2024: the core increase in supply comes from increased production in shanxi (an increase of approximately 70 million tons year-on-year), but the impact on actual sales is expected to be weaker than production data; on the demand side, the demand for thermal coal may still maintain a good growth of 2.5-3% amidst marginal weakening contributions from hydropower and new energy, while non-thermal coal, without considering policy impacts, may see continued decline in demand for steel and cement.
Hong Kong stock concept tracking | Coal prices continue to remain high, institutions are bullish on the coal sector's interest rate arbitrage trade (including concept stocks)
With the continuous implementation of repurchase, shareholding, refinancing, and other mmf tools such as SFISF, arbitrage trade is expected to continuously deepen the value of coal dividends.
Most coal industrial concept stocks rose against the market trend, with china shenhua energy (01088) increasing by 2.7%. Institutions expect that in the fourth quarter, the price of thermal coal will gradually recover by the end of the year.
Jinwu Finance News | Most coal industrial concept stocks are rising against the market trend, with kinetic dev (01277) up 3.6%, china shenhua energy (01088) up 2.7%, china coal energy (01898) up 1.93%, and yankuang energy (01171) up 1.2%. Jianyin International Research Reports indicate that driven by increased seasonal heating demand and a decrease in inventory days for china power, the bank expects thermal coal prices to gradually recover by the end of the fourth quarter. For next year, based on improved economic conditions and nationwide coal production control, the bank anticipates a moderate increase of 5% in thermal coal prices, reaching 905 yuan per ton.
Coal: can be both offensive and defensive, act according to timing.
The sector has investment value and there are also stage-specific trade opportunities.
Shandong Energy Boosts Stake in Yankuang Energy
Yankuang Energy (600188.SH): Shandong Energy has accumulated a shareholding of 0.2761% in A-shares and listed in hong kong.
On November 28, Gelonghui reported that yankuang energy (600188.SH) announced that from November 30, 2023 to November 28, 2024, shandong energy will increase its shareholding in the company by purchasing a total of 27,715,380 shares of both A shares and listed in hong kong shares through the trading systems of shanghai stock exchange and Hong Kong Stock Exchange, representing approximately 0.2761% of the company's total share capital, with an increased amount of 300,202,748.73 yuan (the listed in hong kong shares were increased in Hong Kong dollars, with the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar to the Chinese yuan based on the rate published by the People's Bank of China on the day of increase).
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