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Jefferies Financial: Q2 profits from mainland insurance companies pave the way for recovery in the second half of the year, raising target prices for China Life Insurance, China Pacific Insurance, and other companies.
Jefferies Financial released a research report indicating that the operating performance of mainland insurance companies in the second quarter of this year seems to be moving in the right direction, paving the way for further recovery in the second half of the year. The key will be the growth of mid-term dividends and dividends per share. The market weakness and the drag on stock prices by individual company news have not fully reflected favorable factors. The performance of China Pacific Insurance may surprise the market. The bank expects Ping An Insurance's second quarter and first-half after-tax operating surplus to increase by 4% to 5% year-on-year. It is expected that China Life Insurance's investment income in the first half of the year may increase year-on-year. The new business value in the first half of the year may slow down by 26% from the first quarter on a year-on-year basis, but it is still expected to maintain double-digit growth. In the first half of the year, Pacific Insurance's new business
Changjiang Securities: Asset-end contradictions remain the core factor in the valuation of insurance for 24 years.
Looking back at the changes in the valuation of the insurance industry from 2011 to now, improvements in assets have been a common factor in the rebound of the valuation six times, while the termination of the market is mostly due to the deterioration of assets, and the industry as a whole exhibits a strong beta property.
China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:601601) Low P/E No Reason For Excitement
China Merchants Securities: There may still be room for a reduction in life insurance reserve interest rates, will continue to be bullish on the sector's opportunities in the mid-year report.
Benefiting from the sustained supply and demand of savings insurance, it is expected that the NBV growth rate of listed insurance companies in the first half of 2024 will be above double digits and profits are also expected to increase.
Haitong Securities: Strengthen product and service supply to create a comprehensive ecological system of 'insurance + retirement.'
Basic retirement insurance has a wide coverage, but currently faces significant payment pressures. As of the end of 2023, the number of participants in basic retirement insurance accounted for 76% of the total population that year, and has entered a phase of slow growth. In addition, the accumulated surplus is largely dependent on subsidies from various levels of government finance. According to the calculations of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the accumulated surplus will be completely exhausted by 2035.
[Brokerage Focus] Bocom Intl indicates that investment in insurance stocks still needs to continue to focus on the asset side. Currently, the valuation of the life insurance industry is low.
According to BOCOM Intl, in the first half of 2024, Xinhua's life insurance premium decreased by 8.4%, Taibao's by 1.2%, PICC's remained unchanged, while China Life and Ping An increased by 4.1% and 5.1%, respectively. The total premium growth of the five listed companies was 2.1%, and the premium growth rate continued to trend upwards. In the first half of 2024, premium for PICC, Ping An and Taibao's property insurance increased by 3.7%, 4.1% and 7.7% YoY, while premium for their car insurance increased by 2.5%, 3.4% and 2.8% respectively, all of which were higher than in 2023.
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