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"Golden September effect" failed, Maotai's stock price hits a new low. How much longer will the liquor stocks go downhill?
The problem of "high inventory" is still significant.
gtja: Weak improvement in autumn, intensifying differentiation, the inventory cycle of baijiu continues to unfold.
The main contradiction in the future investment in the baijiu sector is the rebalancing of supply and demand and the restructuring of industry growth expectations.
Orient: Weak consumer environment, liquor companies are cautious about investment, and the enthusiasm of baijiu dealers for pre-holiday payment recovery is expected to be average.
With the upcoming peak season of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, liquor companies are generally entering the delivery period. Considering the weak consumer environment, it is expected that liquor companies will be more cautious in their investment plans and the enthusiasm of dealers for receiving payments will be moderate.
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Soochow Securities: pressure on the baijiu sector structure, slowing down sales, and gradual release of financial risks.
During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, tourism and baijiu consumption were sluggish. The reasons for this are twofold: firstly, poor expectations of residents' income, and secondly, a negative wealth effect caused by the decline in asset prices such as real estate.
gf sec: High-end liquor companies have stable performance, and demand is expected to rebound during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day peak season. The prices of mainstream products are expected to stabilize.
Since the second quarter, the baijiu industry has entered the traditional off-season, with a noticeable weakening of terminal demand. The industry's Matthew effect continues to manifest, and leading liquor companies with strong brand power have stronger performance certainty.
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