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GTJA Securities: Diluting the obsession with scale and embracing the new norm of social financing.
PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng pointed out at the Lujiazui Forum that when the growth of monetary and credit has shifted from supply constraints to demand constraints, if the focus is still on the increase in quantity even in the presence of a "size bias", it obviously contradicts the laws of economic operation. It is expected that the motivation behind banks using bills to pledge loans will significantly weaken, and more attention will be paid to the adjustment of loan structure and improvement of business quality and efficiency. Both social financing and credit will enter a "new normal" of growth.
GF Sec: A summary of the quota and usage of interbank certificates of deposit in the first half of 2024.
Under the policy guidance of idle funds pressure, it is unlikely that state-owned banks will update their filing quotas within the year. In history, only a few urban and rural commercial banks have updated their filing quotas due to the scale of their deposit certificates exceeding the filing quotas, and state-owned banks have no precedent yet.
UBS Group: Maintains a "neutral" rating for BOC Hong Kong (02388), with a target price of HKD 24.
UBS Group has lowered its earnings forecast for BOC Hong Kong (02388) from 2024 to 2027 by 7% to 14% per share.
Hang Seng Index Company: The Hang Seng Stock Connect State-Owned Enterprise Value Index has risen by more than 26% since the beginning of the year, significantly outperforming the market.
Heng Seng Index Company stated that state-owned enterprises have significantly outperformed in the Hong Kong stock market in recent years.
Morgan Stanley: HK based banks have reduced risks and their valuation is reasonable.
On July 5th, Morgan Stanley released a report stating that hk based banks' stock prices outperformed the Hang Seng Index in the second quarter, indicating a reduction in tail risk for the industry and supporting a mean reversion of stock prices, but not a reassessment of valuations.
Uncertainty remains regarding interest rate cuts. According to KPMG, a high interest rate environment is beneficial for the profitability of Hong Kong banks.
KPMG recently released a report on the Hong Kong banking industry in 2024, pointing out that the balance sheet of Hong Kong banks recorded moderate growth due to the higher interest rate environment in 2023, with significant increases in net interest margin and operating surplus.
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