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Caixin C50 Wind Direction Index Survey: Fiscal policy will increase countercyclical adjustment efforts, while the central bank still has ample room for expansion.
① The median forecast for new RMB loans in October is 0.58 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.16 trillion yuan; ② The median forecast for new social financing scale in October is 1.47 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.38 trillion yuan; ③ The year-on-year reading of CPI in October may remain unchanged, while the year-on-year decline in PPI may narrow; ④ Fiscal policy will increase countercyclical adjustment efforts, and the central bank still has ample space for expanding its balance sheet.
Market Chatter: China Local Government Bond Issuances Reach Quota at End of October
China Bond Issuances Reach 7.6 Trillion Yuan in September
The central bank has once again introduced a new liquidity management tool, suitable for the habits of overseas investors, which can better hedge the concentrated maturity of MLF by the end of the year.
1. This is also a new tool launched by the central bank after temporary reverse repurchase and bond trading since the beginning of this year; 2. The term of buy-back repurchase does not exceed 1 year, which can further enrich the liquidity management tools and better hedge the concentrated maturity of MLF before the end of the year; 3. Overseas investors are more accustomed to the buy-back repurchase commonly used internationally.
Bond market closing | Many large banks lowered deposit rates today, equity performance suppressed the bond market, with long-term interest rates rising by about 2 basis points.
Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, stated that promoting a reasonable rise in prices will be an important consideration, with a greater emphasis on the role of interest rates and other price-based regulatory tools.
Bond market closing | The central bank and the Ministry of Finance exchanged views on the operation of the bond market, the sentiment of treasury bonds warmed up, and the 30-year national bond interest rate fell more than 4 basis points.
The stock market is pulling back, with long-term bond bullish sentiment being released, yields significantly down, but the short end may be affected by precautionary redemptions, with political and financial bonds within 2 years seeing a sharp increase.