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Drawing lessons from history, is this wave of AI capital expenditure a boom or a bubble?
Deutsche Bank believes that historically, capital expenditure booms often end in collapse. The key factor that distinguishes prosperity from recession is the level of leverage (debt) involved. Historical experience shows that credit-intensive capital expenditure booms often lead to more severe recessions. Considering the current AI spending boom, which is primarily funded by the profits of large Technology companies in the USA rather than debt, this somewhat reduces systemic risk. However, the ratio of USA household net Assets to disposable income is at a historical high, and the concentration of the stock market has also hit a new high, which increases the systemic risk brought about by the transmission of wealth effects.
ABB LTD To Go Ex-Dividend On March 31st, 2025 With 0.92484 USD Dividend Per Share
Morgan Stanley: Generative AI is expected to achieve positive returns this year, with revenue likely to exceed one trillion dollars by 2028.
Morgan Stanley indicates that 2025 may see the ROI critical point, with a gross margin of 34% marking the Industry's formal crossing of the break-even line; by 2028, the total revenue from generative AI is expected to approach 1.1 trillion dollars, with the ROI likely improving to around 67%, and several Technology giants like Amazon and Meta are expected to benefit from the AI wave.
Goldman Sachs traders' perspective on 2025: the AI boom, differentiated markets, and "sticky" inflation.
Goldman Sachs stated that Wednesday's CPI data once again reminds the market that the view that "high interest rates will last longer" is not unfounded. If the performance of Large Cap stocks in the US market is poor, and high interest rates continue to weigh down Small Cap stocks, it will be difficult for the market to sustain an uptrend. The enthusiasm in the AI field continues, but trends are diverging, and funds may be shifting towards the next phase—AI applications.
Big Tech's 2025 AI Bill Is $320 Billion And Counting: Can Investors Stomach It?
ABB Ltd. (ABBNY) Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Transcript Summary
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