TWIMO (151403908)
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Hi SS, I bought this minutes ago with the goal to improve my technical ability. I’d like to learn from you. Looked at weekly, support in Sept and now in Dec. Looked at daily, safely above Lower Boll. RSI looks to be growing. Am I missing several indicators? I’m looking for 15% gains to exit.
The Real Wojak
OP
TWIMO (151403908)
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I’ve actually been having a pretty hard time with technicals here. Was basing my entry and exit more off of fundamental valuation and thought this was a good deal around $16-18 but support broke and it ended up going all the way down to $14. I think it should be worth a lot more considering they are growing revenue at over 20% and are maintaining good profitability as they continue to scale. Last quarter was over 200M revenue. On an annual basis close to $1B revenue and over $100M profit. So at a PE ratio of 10 they are still worth over a billion dollars. I think this company should be closer to 15-20 PE ratio but there’s concerns over the China Tarrifs and being placed on the US Entity list, however most of their business actually takes place in China not the US so tariffs shouldn’t have much of an impact imo
10baggerbamm
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so what are you thinking a spike 21-22 on earnings next q? it's all the way out into the end of the first week beginning of the second week of February
smoothshoe
OP
10baggerbamm
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I definitely think so. as long as there aren't any additional costs or delays ramping up production and assuming good news on pre-sales of (PEALD)
10baggerbamm
smoothshoe
OP
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yeah I looked at the financials what concerns me is I don't know what the hell they're doing from a technological standpoint I don't get it and I kind of look back at what Warren Buffett said and Peter Lynch you need to be able to explain it in one sentence so the average person can understand it. my question looking at the chart is why did they fall from grace what did they do wrong several years ago that resulted in that massive decline in stock price and why have they turned the corner that would be the question I would ask. and I know there's a three for one split so you look at it you go to $45 down from $120 call it
smoothshoe
OP
10baggerbamm
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yeah, I have been trying to figure the decline out. they supply equipment for semiconductor production (my one sentence). Also, EPS has risen for the last 3 quarters. finally, good news in November: ACM Research Announced A Major Performance Breakthrough For Its Flagship Ultra C Tahoe Cleaning Tool, To Meet Technical Requirements Of Advanced Nodes For Foundry, Logic And Memory Applications For Front-end Semiconductor Manufacturing The Ultra C Tahoe now achieves the perfo https://www.moomoo.com/t/news/post/45541831/7AAYnN2Nmb
TWIMO (151403908)
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Greetings Smoothshoe Didn’t know why it was fluctuating in December… Don’t know why it lifted off today… What do you typically do when this happens?
The Real Wojak
OP
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This clown shit won’t last long. Earnings reports don’t lie. I know it will go back above my average just simply based on earnings. Crazy asf that it went so low for no reason. Analysts also seem to hate this stock for no reason
The Real Wojak
OP
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There is no explanation for such an extreme change in valuation. They have grown revenue and earnings beyond expectations. This is a profitable company with negligible exposure to the US economy. Tariffs don’t matter, revenue is growing, it’s profitable. Fuck you I’m not cutting the loss this is worth way more
$ACM Research (ACMR.US)$I guess the reason would be to prepare for a Trump - Anti China policies coming soon.. and This company seems to have majority business in China.. so its quite obvious its high risk and will drop
The Real Wojak
103998930
OP
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They expect $2B revenue next year. Earnings will be higher regardless of Trump. Don’t you realize that over 96% of this companies revenue is from China not the US? Tariffs will have zero impact.
Biscayne
The Real Wojak
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But wouldn’t they be reliant on the US and Europe to expand outside China? Eventually that has to be the business plan for long term growth. I think investors are worried about a trade war with China and people just generally don’t trust companies with heavy Chinese ties. I really like the stock and want to buy in but IMHO the Chinese thing has kept me from doing so as of late. You make a good point about almost all their revenue is from China though. I suppose after 6 months or a year into a Trump term we will see how relations go and that will affect the stock price. We know the market can be completely irrational lol. Companies that have zero revenue and hype can be insanely overvalued and companies with excellent numbers heavily undervalued. The market pretty much always eventually corrects itself though.
The Real Wojak OP : Took a month but finally got out with gains. Fuckin piece of shit should’ve never fell to $13 I was so pissed
The Real Wojak OP : Only took profits on 1/3 still holding a lot