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The Three-year Decline in Earnings Might Be Taking Its Toll on AAR (NYSE:AIR) Shareholders as Stock Falls 6.5% Over the Past Week
Should You Think About Buying AAR Corp. (NYSE:AIR) Now?
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102362254 : I guess $Costco (COST.US)$ will end this week with the biggest % gain. Costco is financially strong, with steady revenue growth and high membership renewals. With the holiday season approaching, general sales particularly jewelry sales are expected to rise. Competing with retailers like Walmart and Amazon, Costco stands out by offering high-quality, exclusive pieces at great prices. Their in-store experience and brand trust give them an advantage, making it likely they’ll see strong earrings sales during this period.
mr_cashcow : My vote goes to $Costco (COST.US)$ as overall their performance seems to be positive![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
Positive factors:
▲Consistent sales growth: Steady expansion in same-store sales, e-commerce, and international markets
▲Membership model: Stable revenue stream from growing membership base (~110 million)
▲Efficient operations: Ongoing improvements in logistics, supply chain, and inventory management
▲Diversified offerings: Expanding services (pharmacy, optical, tire centers) and private-label products (Kirkland Signature)
▲Global expansion: New store openings and market share gains
Negative factors:
▼Margin pressure: Competition, pricing pressures, and potential tariff impacts
▼E-commerce competition: Amazon, Walmart, and other online retailers
▼Inflation and currency fluctuations: Potential impacts on costs and international sales
A few key metrics:
1. Same-store sales growth: 5-7% (avg.)
2. Membership renewal rate: 90%+ (consistent)
3. Gross margin: 10.5-11% (stable)
4. Operating margin: 4-4.5% (improving)
Disclaimer: All the above are purely for educational purposes & are NOT financial advices, plz DYOR/DD!
Lucas Cheah : $AAR Corp (AIR.US)$ diversified business model, strong recovery in commercial aviation, and stable defense contracts should lead to solid earnings growth over the next several quarters. However, inflationary pressures remain a risk to profitability.
$Costco (COST.US)$ strong brand loyalty, pricing power, and membership-based model position it for continued earnings growth. The retailer is likely to benefit from inflationary trends as consumers seek value, making Costco a solid long-term performer.
$BlackBerry (BB.US)$ future earnings potential hinges on the success of its cybersecurity and IoT business segments. While the company is well-positioned in growing markets, competition and slow revenue growth remain key challenges.
ZnWC : I voted for $Costco (COST.US)$
dynamic-stacker : Earnings Release Performance History:
1. AIR: Average earnings surprise +15.6%, with 75% positive surprises
- Recent trends: Strong revenue growth, expanding gross margins
2. COST: Average earnings surprise +5.5%, with 83% positive surprises
- Recent trends: Consistent sales growth, membership expansion
3. BB: Average earnings surprise -12.1%, with 42% positive surprises
- Recent trends: Mixed results, transitioning from hardware to software focus
Factors Influencing Post-Earnings Performance:
1. AIR:
- Growing demand for travel and short-term rentals
- Expanding offerings (e.g., Airbnb Luxe, Experiences)
- Increasing competition from traditional hospitality and other platforms
2. COST:
- Consistent sales growth, driven by membership expansion and price increases
- Strong logistics and supply chain management
- Dependence on consumer spending and economic conditions
3. BB:
- Transitioning to software-focused business model
- Growing cybersecurity and IoT revenue
- Competition from established players in software and security
Post-Earnings Price Movement:
Historically:
- AIR: Average 5-day post-earnings gain +4.5%
- COST: Average 5-day post-earnings gain +2.5%
- BB: Average 5-day post-earnings gain -1.8%
Ranking:
Based on historical earnings surprise, recent trends, and growth prospects:
1. AIR (Airbnb)
2. COST (Costco)
3. BB (BlackBerry)
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