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Goldman Sachs continues to be bullish on gold: hedging risks, central bank buying + Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, gold price rising to $2700 soon!
Due to the impact of the U.S. debt crisis, the Fed's interest rate reduction, and the hedging of value, Goldman Sachs believes that the price of gold still has over 8% room for increase by early next year, and if the U.S. debt concerns worsen, the gold price could even rise 15%.
Is the era of high interest rates coming to an end, with the nine major central banks globally entering into interest rate cuts in September?
Although inflation in the service industry remains a problem, it is widely expected that the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England will continue to implement loose monetary policies in early 2025. Beat Wittmann, Chairman and Partner of Porta Advisors, stated that interest rate cuts may cause short-term volatility in U.S. stocks but still have investment value.
For seven consecutive years, there has been a 'September Crash' in the gold price! Can the gold price break this seasonal 'curse' this year?
Gold, which has been soaring to new heights since the beginning of this year, may face a severe "seasonal challenge" this month: Will the "September curse" reappear? Since 2017, the price of gold has fallen every September- during this period, the average drop in gold prices in September reached nearly 3.3%, making it undoubtedly the worst-performing month of the year.
Can gold break through the "September curse"?
Since 2017, gold has experienced a decline every September, with an average decline of 3.2%. September is the worst-performing month for gold during the year.
Prospects of interest rate cuts boost the price of gold, and gold bulls cheer.
According to the CFTC data, net long positions in gold have reached the highest level in over four years. UBS Group predicts that by the fourth quarter of this year, the price of gold will rise to $2600, while Citigroup predicts that it will rise to $3000 by next year.
Will gold continue to rise tonight after re-entering the $2500 mark? The industry is focusing on the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting, and gold is expected to continue to push higher.
① Once the annual meeting hints at a 50bp rate cut, the usd may continue to weaken, while gold and US stocks are expected to continue to rise; ② Based on the average performance of gold in the past ten years, gold prices tend to strengthen initially after the Jackson Hole meeting starts; ③ Recently, gold has been on a continuous uptrend, with a significant increase in COMEX net long positions and global gold ETF inflows providing support for gold prices.