Barclays: Trade risks are underestimated, recommending an overweight in Fixed Income Assets.
Barclays economists pointed out that in the context of tariff policy uncertainty potentially dominating market trends in the coming weeks, and the market underestimating trade risks, the institution has recommended allocating more to core Fixed Income Assets rather than Global Equity for the first time in multiple quarters. Previously, despite increasingly unattractive valuations, the bank maintained an overweight in equities, but now takes a cautious stance on risk assets. The bank analyzes that the pullback in U.S. stocks in the first quarter originated from investors lowering growth expectations, and while European stocks performed relatively strongly, they still maintained a correlation with U.S. stocks. Barclays emphasized in the report: 'We recommend overweighting Fixed Income Assets and adopting a defensive strategy regarding risk assets.'
Barclays Bank PLC Updates Announcement of 3 Cash Tender Offers and Consent Solicitations
Wall Street's most pessimistic forecast: Barclays significantly lowers the S&P 500 target to 5,900 points.
On Wednesday, the Barclays Analyst team significantly lowered the 2025 S&P 500 Index target from 6,600 points to 5,900 points, which is the lowest expectation among major Wall Street investment banks. This adjustment is primarily based on two key factors: the impact of Trump's tariffs and the deterioration of macroeconomic data. According to Barclays, Trump's new round of tariffs could reduce the EPS of S&P 500 constituents by 8.5 to 12 cents in 2025, a downward adjustment of 6%-9% compared to earlier expectations. The Industrial (average tariff exposure of 14%) and Consumer (11%) Sectors are the hardest hit. The deterioration of macroeconomic data has also led to the bank's...
Barclays: The Monetary Authority of Singapore may further ease policies this year.
Three members of Barclays' Emerging Markets research department stated in a research report that the Monetary Authority of Singapore may further ease policies this year. Barclays currently predicts that the slope of the nominal effective Exchange Rates policy Range will be lowered by another 50 basis points in the second half of the year, targeting a reduction to zero. Previously, Barclays recently adjusted its baseline forecast scenario, reducing the slope of the policy Range by 50 basis points in April to an estimated 0.5%. These three members indicated that although Singapore's CPI data has been affected by some factors, including the base effect from last year's increase in the Goods and Services Tax, month-on-month inflation is slowing down.
Barclays Lowers Henkel's Estimates on Expected Decline in Consumer Volume
According to a Deutsche Bank survey, the probability of a recession in the USA is 43%. Wall Street warns that Trump's policies pose a risk of stagflation.
According to a survey conducted by Deutsche Bank, the possibility of the USA economy entering a recession is nearly fifty-fifty, which raises more questions about the direction of the USA economy. Between March 17 and 20, the average view from 400 respondents indicated that there is about a 43% probability that the USA economy will experience a slowdown in growth over the next 12 months. Although the unemployment rate is at a low level and most data indicate that the USA economy continues to grow even if the growth rate is slowing, the survey results further confirm the messages conveyed by various sentiment surveys, which show that consumers and business leaders are increasingly worried about the risks of economic slowdown or recession.
Models indicate that the USA's debt ceiling could be breached as early as mid-July.
The U.S. Bipartisan Policy Center stated that a model released on Monday shows that if Congress does not take action, the United States could breach the debt ceiling sometime between mid-July and October. The institution also mentioned that while the possibility is low, if this year's tax revenue falls short of expectations, the so-called "X date" could arrive in early June. The U.S. Treasury has not predicted when the X date will occur, at which point the federal government would not have the authority to fulfill payment obligations. Wall Street estimates that the X date could occur as early as the end of May (according to BNP Paribas) and as late as the end of August or in the third quarter (according to Bank of America, Barclays, and TD Securities).
Bank of England Launches Capital Stress Test for Systemic Banks
Barclays: The Chancellor of the Exchequer of the United Kingdom may announce further spending cuts after 2027.
The Chief Economist of Barclays, Jack Meaning, stated in a report that the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, may announce a fiscal adjustment of about 10 billion British Pounds (equivalent to 12.9 billion U.S. Dollars) after 2027 in the spring statement on Wednesday, in order to avoid conflicts with the upcoming three-year spending review. This move may also limit the Office for Budget Responsibility's predictions regarding the drag on economic growth.
Barclays Wins Dismissal Over Unauthorized Sale of $17.7B Securities
The new slogan of the USA bond market is: "Don't go against the Treasury of Besant!"
Recently, the USA Treasury Secretary Basant has frequently highlighted the 10-year US Treasury yield. In his speeches and interviews over the past few weeks, he has consistently emphasized the government's plan to lower yields and hopes to keep them low. This is somewhat normal, as controlling the government's borrowing costs is part of the Treasury Secretary's job, but Basant's persistent focus on the benchmark US Treasury has led some Wall Street analysts to adjust their forecasts for 2025. In recent weeks, chief rate strategists from Barclays, Royal Bank of Canada, and Industrial Bank have indicated that, given Basant's efforts to push yields down, they have lowered their forecasts for the 10-year US Treasury.
Barclays Keeps RWE at Overweight, Sees Strong Medium-Term Outlook
Top Gap Ups and Downs on Thursday: BABA, ACN, SAN and More
Barclays Appoints Kieran Whitty as a Co-Head of Healthcare for Europe, Middle East and Africa
Elon Musk Secures About $1B in Fresh X Funding
Barclays: The minutes from the Bank of Thailand increase the risk of further rate cuts.
Barclays economist Shreya Sodhani stated in a Research Reports that the Bank of Thailand's minutes released on Wednesday for the February meeting increase the risk of further easing of monetary policy. "We believe the tone of these minutes is clearly dovish, indicating that in supporting sustainable growth while maintaining price and financial stability, growth will now take precedence," Sodhani said. "While we still think there may be two more rate cuts this year, we now believe the risk of a fourth rate cut this year has increased, especially if the USA implements reciprocal tariffs or a 10% tariff on Thailand."
European Equities Traded in the US as American Depositary Receipts Edge Lower in Tuesday Trading
Barclays (BCS): A Top Extreme Value Stock to Invest in Right Now
Trump nominates Bowman to serve as Vice Chairman for Supervision at the Federal Reserve, likely to relax regulations.
Analysis suggests that if the USA Senate confirms the nomination, Bowman's approach to banking regulation will be more lenient than that of her predecessor Barr, as she has long criticized the "Basel III endgame" rule that requires banks to Hold more capital. This rule was proposed by Barr and aims to reform the risk assessment methods of large banks, whereas Bowman believes that the capital burden on banks should be reduced.
Banks Are Feeling the Strain as Lower-income Consumers Struggle With Inflation and Tariff Chaos