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Baidu Wenxin 4.5 is coming, and the large model application competition has accelerated.
Author | The main text by Mengxiao has a total of 3,801 words, with an estimated reading time of 10 minutes. On February 28, Baidu officially announced that it will release the Wenxin large model 4.5 on March 16. The day before Baidu's official announcement, Reuters revealed that Baidu Wenxin 4.5 would be released in mid-March. In the early hours of the 28th, OpenAI released the GPT-4.5 model, and the timing of OpenAI's release of GPT-4.5 coincidentally happened to be the day after Reuters' revelation. Therefore, industry insiders analyzed that a significant reason for OpenAI's hasty release of GPT-4.5 might be the intensified competition from China. However, the release seemed somewhat rushed.
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Drawing lessons from history, is this wave of AI capital expenditure a boom or a bubble?
Deutsche Bank believes that historically, capital expenditure booms often end in collapse. The key factor that distinguishes prosperity from recession is the level of leverage (debt) involved. Historical experience shows that credit-intensive capital expenditure booms often lead to more severe recessions. Considering the current AI spending boom, which is primarily funded by the profits of large Technology companies in the USA rather than debt, this somewhat reduces systemic risk. However, the ratio of USA household net Assets to disposable income is at a historical high, and the concentration of the stock market has also hit a new high, which increases the systemic risk brought about by the transmission of wealth effects.
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