What does the Federal Reserve's "Skip" mean for the market?
Citi Research found that during the period when the Federal Reserve pauses interest rate cuts, the U.S. stock market usually performs well, but the sustainability of the rise depends on whether economic weakness leads to a restart of policy easing; U.S. Treasury rates usually rise at the pause or end of the cycle; for the dollar, if the interest rate cuts are only paused, the dollar performs laterally, if it is the last interest rate cut, the dollar will rise; after the pause, regardless of whether the easing cycle continues, Gold prices usually rise.
Morgan Stanley: The undervalued "Gold Triad" of China.
Morgan Stanley pointed out that against the backdrop of intensified geopolitical risks, China gold will benefit from market risk aversion sentiment and be favored by Chinese investors, while expectations of yuan volatility also provide support for gold prices to rise. Zijin Mining Group, SD GOLD, and ZHAOJIN MINING are undervalued in the market, and their production is expected to grow significantly in the next five years. It is anticipated that gold prices will reach $2,850 per ounce in the second quarter of 2025.
ING: Next year, the CSI Commodity Equity Index will experience a "Put year," while Gold will still shine!
① ING expects that the Global situation will put pressure on the Energy and CSI Commodity Equity Index markets, but the outlook for Gold remains bright. ② The report points out that Trump's tariff plans may disrupt the oil, Metal, and Agriculture markets; ③ However, ING predicts that the average Gold price will rise to $2,760 per ounce by 2025, primarily influenced by central bank purchases of Gold and the appeal of Gold as a safe-haven asset.
Will gold continue to shine next year? Goldman Sachs is listed as one of the “three major catalysts”: see you at $3,000!
① Goldman Sachs expects the price of gold to rise 11% to $3,000 per ounce by the end of 2025; ② Goldman Sachs believes that interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, increased gold purchases by central banks, and rising geopolitical uncertainty are the three major factors driving the price of gold higher.
Bank of America's outlook for the bulk market in 2025: Tariffs cast a shadow over the global market, crude oil enters an oversupply cycle, with gold shining alone, soaring straight to $3,000.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch expects that due to a significant increase in production from non-OPEC countries, coupled with the possibility of OPEC+ releasing more supply, the crude oil market may enter a surplus cycle, with the average annual price of Brent crude oil expected to be $65 per barrel. Basic metals are experiencing price fluctuations amid differentiated supply and demand. Driven by macroeconomic uncertainty and risk aversion sentiment, gold remains one of the most attractive precious metals in 2025.
French miners lament that the profitability of nickel mining business cannot be achieved without china technology and equipment.
① The multinational mining giant Ehmann stated that western companies cannot make a profit in the nickel mining business in Indonesia without relying on china's technology, equipment, and management experience; ② Ehmann and BASF have canceled the 2.6 billion dollar nickel-cobalt refining plant project in Indonesia due to it being 'economically unfeasible'; ③ Ehmann is collaborating with China’s Qingshan Holding to operate the nickel mine in Weda Bay, with the CEO stating that china's technology, expertise, and equipment are key to competitiveness.