Gold Tops $2400 Amid Rate-Cut Hope: Is the Bull Run Over?

The anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has invigorated the gold market, propelling prices above the $2,400 threshold for the first time since May 22nd. This surge followed the release of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday, which fell short of Wall Street expectations and prompted the market to price in over a 90% chance of a rate cut in September.

Analysts NotebookJul 12 11:23 ET

Optimistic prospects for interest rate cuts have led to a general increase in major overseas asset classes such as US stocks, gold, silver, and crude oil. Weekly report on major overseas assets.

After the release of non-farm data for the week of July 1-5, the US stock and bond markets rose and the US dollar came under pressure. Upon realizing the 'data detail' that the data in the first two months before non-farm was cut by 0.11 million, US bonds sharply rebounded and the yield curve became steeper.

wallstreetcnJul 7 05:50 ET

Gold and silver hit new one-month highs! Behind it is not only the boost of non-agricultural employment, but also the "big purchases" of the Reserve Bank of India.

The Non-Farm Payroll report released a significant signal of cooling in the US labor market, with expectations of a Fed interest rate cut rising and the US dollar under pressure. India's central bank gold reserves increased by over 9 tons in June, the highest level since July 2022.

wallstreetcnJul 5 23:11 ET

Amidst the low battery prices, hedge funds quietly bought physical cobalt.

This year, the sales of electric autos have been weaker than expected and the cobalt market has experienced a record oversupply, causing spot cobalt prices to drop to a seven-year low. The cobalt futures price, which will be delivered in one year, is already 20% higher than the spot price. A significant spot discount creates opportunities for arbitrage.

wallstreetcnJul 5 13:54 ET

Worsened lithium prices? Annual production capacity increased by 79%, with four mines in Argentina jointly contributing, including Zijin Mining and Ganfeng Lithium.

Four new lithium mining projects in Argentina will be put into production in the coming weeks to months, which will nearly double Argentina's lithium production capacity. Although the new capacity will not be put into use immediately, the increased certainty of future supply will undoubtedly further increase the downward pressure on lithium prices.

wallstreetcnJun 29 02:33 ET

Citi and Bank of America Merrill Lynch are both bullish: gold prices are expected to rise to $3000 in the next year.

Strong physical demand, central bank purchases, as well as macro factors such as concerns about US bonds and the Fed's interest rate cuts, will support the rise in gold prices.

wallstreetcnJun 24 10:06 ET