In the fourth quarter, the pig prices staged a "ultimate showdown" between bulls and bears, determining whether the pork industry will be "fat or lean" next year. | Industry Observations
1. The price of pork has been continuously falling for two months during the traditional strong period, with a decline of more than 20%; 2. Behind the decline is the increase in slaughter caused by the expansion of piglets and the concentrated slaughter in the second fattening, forming a downward momentum together; 3. If the pork price in the fourth quarter is not good during the peak season, the pig cycle may either rise directly or come to an end. If the pork price realizes an upward pig cycle, pig enterprises and the breeding industry are still expected to have a prosperous year in 2025.
In September, the group's pig farming enterprises actively slaughtered, and the profitability of Q4 breeding may continue | Industry Trends
1. The pig price continues to rebound, combined with the continued decline in costs, resulting in simultaneous increase in quantity and price of pig enterprises in the third quarter; 2. The average selling price of the group's pig enterprises in September is between 18.6 yuan/kg and 19 yuan/kg, with most pig farms' breeding costs around 14 yuan/kg, demonstrating considerable profitability for breeding enterprises; 3. It is widely believed within the industry that there is still profit potential for pig enterprises in the fourth quarter.
Has the harsh winter passed? Pig feed demand is now picking up: a frontline salesperson sold 100 tons more in a single month compared to the beginning of the year.
①Affected by the recovery of the breeding market, the demand for first-line pig fodder is trending upwards. Some frontline fodder sales staff have reported: "In September, sales were 100 tons higher than in January."; ② Although pig feed has seen continuous improvement compared to the previous month, there is still a gap compared to the same period last year; ③ According to industry experts, the positive trend in pig feed demand, coupled with low raw material costs, may become a support point for future corporate performance improvement.
Piglet prices 'halved', disagreement on restocking in breeding industry, industry expects pig farming to remain profitable next year | Industry Dynamics
①The price of piglets has plummeted, nearly halving from the highest point this year, with 7KG piglets in some regions falling to 140 yuan each; ② The sentiment of adding pens at the breeding end is now polarized, with some breeders stably adding pens while others are quite cautious; ③ Most breeders and industry experts are optimistic about the overall market outlook for next year, with profitability still being the main trend.
August is the peak period of profitability for pig enterprises, with daily profits exceeding one billion yuan. | Industry News
①In August, the pig market continued to recover, with sales prices of major pig companies reaching a new high this year; ②The peak of profitability for pig companies still focuses on reducing costs and increasing efficiency. Muyuan Foods, Shennong Group, and Wens Foodstuff Group have all reduced their fully loaded costs to below 14 yuan/kg; ③Some industry insiders believe that breeding companies will continue to maintain a considerable profit trend this year.
Due to the bird flu outbreak, Brazil, the world's largest exporter of chicken, has temporarily suspended exports to China and the European Union.
This news also caused a stir in the domestic market. Today, A-share pork and chicken stocks showed unusual activity in the afternoon. Xiaoming Stock surged more than 10%, followed by Huaying Agricultural Development, Hunan Xiang Jia Husbandry, Hunan Zhenghong Science and Technology Development, Shandong Yisheng Livestock & Poultry Breeding, and Shandong Minhe Animal Husbandry.