The LPR remained unchanged in January. Will mortgage rates decrease again in 2025?
① Since January, the policy interest rates, which are the basis for LPR Quotes, have stabilized, suggesting that the January LPR Quote will remain unchanged. ② There is a possibility of interest rate cuts in the first half of 2025, with the total reduction expected to reach 50 basis points for the year, which is higher than the 30 basis points reduction from the previous year, leading to a significant downward adjustment of the LPR Quote.
Statistics Bureau: In 2024, national Real Estate Development investment is 10,028 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.6% compared to the previous year.
In 2024, the national Real Estate Development investment is 10,028 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.6%, of which Residence investment is 7,604 billion yuan, down 10.5%.
A-shares fell collectively, with micro futures down nearly 1%. Real Estate, media, and Banks led the decline, Hong Kong stocks dropped, Vanke's stocks and bonds fell together, and government bond Futures showed divergence.
Today, shares and bonds of CHINA VANKE both fell, with CHINA VANKE's stock in Hong Kong dropping over 8%, and the company's Overseas bonds hitting new lows. According to Economic Observer, on January 15, Zhu Jiusheng, Executive Director, President, and CEO of CHINA VANKE, was taken away by public security authorities.
Real estate Bonds plummeted, with the decline of "0.21 million科02" expanding to 27% after a trading halt. This year, real estate companies still have over 500 billion Bonds to repay.
In 2024, the Real Estate Industry achieved a total domestic credit Bonds financing of 344.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.5%. In 2025, the maturing Bonds balance for real estate companies is 313.547 billion yuan, with a repurchase balance of 227.444 billion yuan, where March and June are peak repayment months.
Yang Huiyan takes COUNTRY GARDEN to break through challenges.
Strive to turn the situation around.
Pan Gongsheng: The level of Real Estate transactions has improved, and research shows that residents' willingness to purchase homes is steadily increasing.
① Pan Gongsheng stated that recently the central government has further clarified that local government special Bonds can be used to recover idle stock land, acquire newly stored land, and purchase existing Commodity housing, which will accelerate the de-inventory process in the Real Estate market and stabilize the real estate market. ② According to the survey data released by the China Index Academy today, the willingness of residents to purchase homes has been stable with a slight increase recently; overall, most city markets are continuing to adopt a strategy of exchanging price for volume.