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What does the Federal Reserve's "Skip" mean for the market?
Citi Research found that during the period when the Federal Reserve pauses interest rate cuts, the U.S. stock market usually performs well, but the sustainability of the rise depends on whether economic weakness leads to a restart of policy easing; U.S. Treasury rates usually rise at the pause or end of the cycle; for the dollar, if the interest rate cuts are only paused, the dollar performs laterally, if it is the last interest rate cut, the dollar will rise; after the pause, regardless of whether the easing cycle continues, Gold prices usually rise.
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In October, China's holdings of US Treasury bonds hit their lowest level in over 15 years! Is the trend of reducing US Treasury bonds beginning to spread Global?
① On Thursday local time, the USA Treasury released the International Capital Flow Report (TIC) for October 2024; ② The report showed that the amount of US Treasury bonds held by foreign investors ended five consecutive months of growth in October; ③ Led by Japan and China, as many as seven of the top ten "creditors" of the USA chose to reduce their Shareholding that month. Meanwhile, China's US Treasury Hold Positions further hit a new low since 2009.
Is the market too conservative? Bond traders expect the Fed to cut rates four times in 2025.
In terms of interest rate Options, some traders bet that the market's view is too hawkish, and the Federal Reserve will be closer to its September forecast: four rate cuts in 2025, each by 25 basis points, which would bring the implied federal funds target rate down to 3.375%. Some analysts believe that if Powell adopts a hawkish tone during the press conference, the rise in Bonds yields may be disrupted.
Big Dipper OP : See what happened: The price stopped at 3.39~3.4 for some time, after some retail investors bought in, it started to drop further, and then those poor buyers are trapped.
104955101 : This stock is definitely not something ordinary people buy. As a beginner, I can tell from the trading volume and trend that something is not right.