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What does a 1.7% yield on a 10-year government bond signify?
Xinda Securities believes that the recent pricing of the 10-year government bond yields reflects the potential for a decline in the OMO rate next year. Based on the economic outlook and monetary policy environment for 2025, it is anticipated that a reduction of 50 basis points in the OMO rate may be necessary to achieve a marginal easing similar to that of 2024, which suggests that the 1.7% yield on the 10-year government bonds does not appear to be overly priced.
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Is the next "explosive" market threshold for US Treasury bonds 4.75%?
Julian Emanuel, a strategist at Evercore ISI, stated that although long-term corporate earnings remain a driving force in the stock market, rising bond yields will pose the greatest challenge to the U.S. bull market. He expects that if the 10-year Treasury yield stays below 4.5%, the U.S. stock market will still have the ability to overcome pressure and continue to rise. However, if yields exceed 4.75%, it could trigger a longer and deeper stock market adjustment.
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U.S. Treasury yields have surged. Has Wall Street really changed this time?
More and more investors now believe that the USA economy can withstand higher interest rates, and inflation threats will persist. Analysts suggest that if Trump stimulates inflation by increasing tariffs and is unable to control the increase in US debt supply through budget deficit cuts, the 10-year yield could easily surpass 5%.